人口老龄化区域差异与我国长期护理保险支付压力研究  

Research on the Regional Aging Disparities and Long-Term Care Insurance Payment Pressure in China

作　　者：周怡 邢冉 张泽栋 Zhou Yi;Xing Ran;Zhang Zedong(Sehool of Economics and Management,Shanghai Polytechnic University,Shanghai,201209,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]上海第二工业大学经济与管理学院,上海201209 [2]北京大学第三医院,北京100191 [3]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京102488 [4]中国中医药科技发展中心(国家中医药管理局人才交流中心),北京100027

出　　处：《中国卫生经济》2024年第8期28-33,共6页Chinese Health Economics

基　　金：中国工程院院地合作项目(2023-DFZD-37)。

摘　　要：目的:分析我国未来人口老龄化、高龄化背景下的各区域老年失能人口增长趋势,测算失能人口长期护理保险潜在支付压力,为我国统筹发展长期护理保险制度提供决策参考。方法:构建长期护理保险基金支出金额估算模型,采用基于随机森林模型得到的2025—2060年我国各省份人口年龄结构,并结合老年人口失能率、老年失能人口照护成本等多源数据,预测未来我国各省份老年失能人口及长期护理保险支付金额。结果:我国老龄化趋势将持续加剧,并呈显著的结构化特征,内蒙古、黑龙江、吉林和辽宁等地区老龄化比例高峰最早到来,山东、四川、河南等人口大省老年失能人口数量较多,广东将在2055年成为失能老年人口最多的省份。结论:建议稳步推进长期护理保险体系建设,从国家层面对东北地区、人口大省长期护理保险体系建设进行资源倾斜。Objective:In the context of the aging trend of China'8 population,it aims to analyze the trend of elderly disabled population growth in various regions and calculate the potential payment pressure of long-term care insurance for the disabled population,thereby providing policy implications for China's long-term care insurance system.Methods:A model for estimating the amount of expenditure on long-term care insurance fund was constructed,using the population age structure of each province in China from 2025 to 2060 obtained from the random forest model,and combining multi-source data such as the disability rate of the elderly population and the care cost of disabled elderly people to predict the number of elderly disabled people and the payment amount of long-term care insurance in each province in the future.Results:The aging trend in China will continue to intensify and exhibit a significant structural feature.The peak of the aging ratio in northeastern regions such as Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang,Jilin,and Liaoning will come earliest,while the number of elderly people with disabilities in provinces with large populations such as Shandong,Sichuan,and Henan are relatively larger.Guangdong will have the largest number of disabled elderly people by 2055.Conclusion:It is suggested that the long-term care insurance system should be steadily advanced,with national-level support for the construction of the system in Northeast China and populous provinces.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 失能老年人口 随机森林模型 长期护理保险 

分 类 号：R1-9[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学] F840.625[经济管理—保险]