乌鲁木齐市房屋空置率估算  

Estimation of housing vacancy rate in Urumqi City

作　　者：卢世俊 马长博 余佳苡 宋子翼 何宗微 LU Shi-jun;MA Chang-bo;YU Jia-yi;SONG Zi-yi;HE Zong-wei(School of Civil Engineering,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830047,Xinjiang,China;College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Building Structure and Earthquake Resistance,Urumqi 830047,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学建筑工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830047 [2]同济大学测绘与地理信息学学院,上海200092 [3]新疆建筑结构与抗震重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830047

出　　处：《西北师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第5期45-53,共9页Journal of Northwest Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学青年基金资助项目(2021D01C108)。

摘　　要：以乌鲁木齐市为例,分别提取住宅区域与非住宅区域灯光亮度值、房屋使用率最大平均灯光亮度值,通过住宅区域单位面积灯光亮度值与房屋使用率最大时平均灯光亮度的比值,构建房屋空置率估算模型,分析结果显示:乌鲁木齐市天山区、新市区平均房屋空置率较低,乌鲁木齐县、达坂城区、头屯河区平均房屋空置率较高,水磨沟区、沙依巴克区与米东区平均房屋空置率居中;2018年至2019年乌鲁木齐市房屋空置率整体呈现下降趋势.运用实地调查数据对估算进度验证,均方根误差为0.051,表明所提出的房屋空置率估算模型精度较高,可有效估算房屋空置率.结合人口、经济、季节因素,分析空置率时空分布原因,得到:新市区、天山区户籍人口数与房屋空置率成负相关;乌鲁木齐市经济呈增长速率与房屋空置率成负相关,但乌鲁木齐市经济仍欠发达,整体房屋空置率偏高;乌鲁木齐市夏秋两季日落较晚,冬季天气寒冷且2月正值春节假期,因此8月、10月的平均房屋空置率低于2月.Taking Urumqi City as the research object,the brightness values of residential and non residential areas,as well as the maximum average brightness values of housing utilization rates,were extracted separately.By comparing the brightness values of residential areas per unit area to the average brightness values of housing utilization rates,a housing vacancy rate estimation model was constructed.The results showed that the average housing vacancy rates in Tianshan District and Xinshi District of Urumqi City were relatively low,while the average housing vacancy rates in Urumqi County,Dabancheng District,and Toutunhe District were relatively high.The average housing vacancy rates in Shuimogou District,Shayibak District,and Midong District were in the middle.The overall vacancy rate of houses in Urumqi City showed a downward trend from 2018 to 2019.Using field survey data to verify the estimated progress,the root mean square error was 0.051,indicating that the proposed model for estimating housing vacancy rates has high accuracy and can effectively estimate housing vacancy rates.Combined with population,economy and seasonal factors,the causes of spatial and temporal distribution of vacancy rate was analyzed.The showed results that:the number of registered residence population in the new urban area and Tianshan District is negatively related to the vacancy rate of housing.The economic growth rate of Urumqi is negatively correlated with the vacancy rate of houses,but the city s economy is still underdeveloped and the overall vacancy rate of houses is relatively high.The summer and autumn sunsets in Urumqi are relatively late,the winter weather is cold,and February falls during the Spring Festival holiday.Therefore,the average vacancy rate of houses in August and October is lower than that in February.

关 键 词：珞珈一号 夜间灯光遥感 土地覆盖数据 房屋空置率 

分 类 号：F222.3[经济管理—国民经济]