RCEP对中国农产品进口与国家粮食安全的影响  

Impacts of RCEP agreement on China’s agricultural products import and food security

作　　者：黄孝岩 李国祥[2] HUANG Xiaoyan;LI Guoxiang(School of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Food Consumption Economics Research Office,Rural Development Institute Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京102488 [2]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2024年第10期1-15,共15页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：中国社会科学院农村发展研究所横向课题(2022NFSHKX002)。

摘　　要：为科学预判RCEP(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)实施对中国农产品进口与粮食安全的影响,从而更好利用国外农产品市场,实现更高水平的粮食安全,使用GTAP模型对此进行事前分析。结果表明:RCEP的实施将增强我国重要农产品的可获性,有力保障国家粮食安全;国内部分农产品生产将受到来自RCEP伙伴竞品的冲击;替代效应引致非RCEP成员国的部分农产品对华出口也会受到波及,但总体负面影响有限。政策启示:抓住RCEP实施的重要机遇,充分利用好伙伴国农业资源;加强国内农业产业发展支持力度,着力降低来自RCEP伙伴农产品的负向影响;持续推进农产品多元化进口战略,稳固与非RCEP成员国的农业经贸关系。To scientifically predict the impacts of RCEP(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)implementation on China’s agricultural product imports and food security,and better utilize foreign agricultural product markets to achieve higher level of food security,this study uses the GTAP model for prior analysis.The results show that:The implementation of RCEP will enhance the availability of important agricultural products in China and effectively guarantee food security;The supply of some domestic agricultural products will be affected by RCEP partner countries;Some agricultural products exported to China by non-RCEP member countries will also be affected,but the overall negative impact is not significant.To conclude,some policy enlightenment are put forward in this study as follows:Seize the important opportunity of RCEP implementation and make full use of agricultural resources in partner countries;Strengthen the support of domestic agricultural industry development,and strive to reduce the negative impact of agricultural products from RCEP partner countries;Continue to promote the diversified import strategy of agricultural products and stabilize the economic and trade relations of non-RCEP member countries.

关 键 词：RCEP 农产品进口 粮食安全 GTAP 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F326[经济管理—产业经济]