中国对RCEP其他成员国农产品出口增长动因分析——基于三元边际的视角  

Motivation of the growth of China’s agricultural exports to other RCEP member countries:Based on the perspective of ternary margins

作　　者：张晓雅 肖海峰[1] ZHANG Xiaoya;XIAO Haifeng(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2024年第10期16-28,共13页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：农业农村部和财政部国家现代农业产业技术体系项目(CARS-39-22)。

摘　　要：为探究中国对RCEP其他成员国农产品出口增长动因及影响路径,基于UN Comtrade数据库2001—2021年中国与RCEP其他成员国HS-6位农产品贸易数据,采用H-K测度法对中国出口RCEP其他成员国农产品增长进行三元边际分解,并分不同种类农产品探究中国农产品出口增长动因,进一步,对整体农产品出口及三元边际的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:出口增长动因分解方面,整体层面,价格驱动的集约边际扩张是中国对RCEP国家农产品出口增长的主要路径。分产品层面,园艺作物、水产品出口增长动力主要源于“价量齐增”的双重作用,农副产品、粮油作物和畜产品出口增长主要依赖价格边际驱动。对农产品出口总额和三元边际的影响因素方面,RCEP其他成员国经济规模、地理距离、贸易便利化程度、人口规模等因素对中国农产品出口总额和三元边际增长均有显著影响。To explore the factors driving the growth of Chinese agricultural exports to other RCEP member countries and their impact pathways,this study utilizes HS-6 level agricultural trade data from the UN Comtrade database spanning from 2001 to 2021.By employing the H-K decomposition method,the study first conducts a ternary marginal analysis of China’s agricultural export growth to RCEP member countries.The driving factors behind the growth of different types of agricultural products in China’s exports is then investigated.Finally,the study analyzes the factors influencing the ternary marginal of overall agricultural export trade.The results indicate that:In terms of the decomposition of export growth drivers,overall,the intensive margin expansion driven by price is the primary pathway for the growth of China’s agricultural exports to RCEP countries.At the product level,the growth of horticultural crops and aquatic products is primarily attributed to the dual effect of“price and quantity increase,”while the growth of agricultural byproducts,cereals and oilseeds,and livestock products mainly relies on price-driven margins.Concerning the impact factors on the total agricultural export value and ternary marginal,factors such as the economic scale of RCEP member countries,geographical distance,trade facilitation levels,and population size significantly influence both the total value and ternary marginal growth of Chinese agricultural exports.

关 键 词：RCEP国家 农产品出口 三元边际 增长动因 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]