军力对比评估系统动力学方法  

System dynamics method for comparative assessment on military forces

作　　者：李兵 陈晓莹 徐秦 沈洋 LI Bing;CHEN Xiaoying;XU Qin;SHEN Yang(Consulting Center for Strategic Assessment,Academy of Military Science,Beijing 100091,China)

机构地区：[1]军事科学院战略评估咨询中心,北京100091

出　　处：《国防科技》2024年第4期108-117,共10页National Defense Technology

摘　　要：提出以系统动力学方法开展军力对比评估。运用系统动力学基本原理解构军力发展的内在规律与特点,解析军力对比评估的系统动力学流程,确立和设计军力对比评估的系统目标、结构分析、模型构建、模型评估、模型应用等,解决军力对比评估这一复杂系统问题。研究成果具有一定的理论指导意义和实践应用价值,可为开展各类军力对比评估提供方法参考。The comparative assessment on military forces is a complex process involving a wide range of aspects.Science-based methods must be adopted to objectively and accurately showcase the actual level of military forces.System dynamics is a system engineering method based on the feedback control theory that studies the dynamic behavior of complex systems through the computer simulation technology.In accordance with the basic principles of system dynamics,a method for the comparative assessment on military forces is proposed in this paper,which analyzes the system dynamics process,and designs the system objective,structural analysis,modelling,and model assessment and application of thecomparative assessment.The research findings are valuable both for theoretical guidance and for practical application,offering references for conducting comparative assessment on various military forces.

关 键 词：军力 对比评估 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TJ01[兵器科学与技术—兵器发射理论与技术]