RCEP生效对中国经济的影响效应分析——基于GTAP模型  

Analysis of the Effects of RCEP on China's Economy:Based on GTAP model

作　　者：金姿 Jin Zi(School of Tourism Services and Management,Tourism College of Zhejiang,Hangzhou 311231,China;College of Economics,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江旅游职业学院旅行服务与管理学院,杭州311231 [2]浙江工业大学经济学院,杭州310023

出　　处：《大理大学学报》2024年第9期40-47,共8页Journal of Dali University

基　　金：浙江旅游职业学院高层次培育课题项目(2024GCCQ5)。

摘　　要：当今世界正遇百年未有之大变局,区域双边贸易投资协定与以世界贸易组织(WTO)为代表的多边机制并存,RCEP的签署是实现我国国内国际双循环新发展格局的重要突破口。在一般均衡框架下,基于GTAP模型模拟预测不同区域贸易协定生效后对我国经济产生的短期与长期影响。模拟结果表明:TPP与TTIP会对我国的贸易流量、贸易条件、福利水平、经济增长等产生不利影响;而CPTPP、中日韩自贸区、RCEP的影响要更为复杂,但总体来说推动生效后的经济效应利大于弊。这一发现为中国今后如何在区域价值链布局,积极推动贸易投资多边与双边发展提供了理论科学依据。Today's world is experiencing a great change that has not been seen in a century.Regional bilateral trade and investment agreements coexist with the multilateral mechanism represented by the World Trade Organization(WTO),and the signing of RCEP is an important breakthrough in realizing the new development paradigm of China's domestic and international circulations.Under the general equilibrium framework,based on the GTAP model,the simulation predicts the short-term and long-term impacts on China's economy when different Regional Trade Agreements come into effect.The simulation results show that TPP and TTIP will adversely affect China's trade flows,terms of trade,welfare level,economic growth,etc.,while the impacts of CPTPP,China-Japan-Korea free trade area,and RCEP are more complicated,but overall the economic effects of the entry into force will be more favorable than unfavorable.This finding provides a theoretical and scientific basis for how China will lay out its regional value chain and actively promote multilateral and bilateral development in the future.

关 键 词：区域贸易协定 GTAP模型 经济效应 RCEP 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]