权责发生制政府会计改革对政府债务的影响——基于国际数据的研究  

The Impact of Accrual Accounting Reform on Government Debt: A Study Based on International Data

作　　者：万熙虹 Xihong Wan(University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学,北京100029

出　　处：《财务与金融》2024年第3期22-32,共11页Accounting and Finance

基　　金：对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(19YB02)。

摘　　要：自20世纪70年代以来,全球已经历了四次大规模的债务积累浪潮,在最近一轮债务浪潮中新兴市场和发展中国家的债务规模出现了最大幅度的增长。近年来,政府债务风险成为全球各国金融治理的重点,全面统计政府债务是防范风险的基本前提。引入权责发生制的政府会计改革有助于促进政府债务的全面核算和披露。选取几个具有代表性的国家,综合采用时间序列分析和面板固定效应模型等方法,实证检验政府会计改革对政府债务的影响。研究发现,引入权责发生制的政府会计改革有助于披露政府债务的真实水平,但同时也会引起政府部门杠杆率上升。进一步研究发现,双权责发生制改革对政府债务的影响效应比单权责发生制改革更为强烈;政府会计改革对政府债务的影响存在短期和长期的不同效应,随着改革的深入推进,政府部门杠杆率呈现出先升后降的变动趋势。总体而言,权责发生制的政府会计改革有助于披露政府债务的真实规模,正确评估政府债务水平,防范政府债务风险。我国政府会计的改革实践可以从上述结论中得到借鉴和参考,但更需根据我国的实际情况制定渐进式的改革方案,才能有效发挥会计改革的正面效应。Since the 1970s,the world has experienced four major waves of debt accumulation,with the most recent wave seeing the greatest increase in debt levels among emerging markets and developing economies.In recent years,the risk of government debt has become a focal point in the financial governance of countries worldwide,and a comprehensive accounting of government debt is a basic prerequisite for risk prevention.The introduction of government accounting reforms based on the accrual accounting system is conducive to the comprehensive accounting and disclosure of government debt.This study selects several representative countries and employs a combination of time series analysis and panel fixed effects models to empirically examine the impact of government accounting reform on government debt.The findings indicate that the introduction of the accrual accounting system in government accounting reform helps disclose the true level of government debt,but also leads to an increase in government sector leverage.Further research reveals that the impact of dual accrual accounting reform on government debt is more pronounced than under the single accrual accounting reform.The impact of government accounting reform on government debt differ in the short term and long term,with government sector leverage initially rising and then declining as the reform progresses.Overall,the accrual accounting system in government accounting reform helps to reveal the true scale of government debt,correctly assess the level of government debt,and prevent the risk of government debt.China's government accounting reform practice can draw lessons and references from these conclusions,but it is more necessary to formulate a gradual reform plan according to the actual situation to effectively exert the positive effects of accounting reform.

关 键 词：政府会计改革 权责发生制 政府债务 政府杠杆 

分 类 号：F230[经济管理—会计学]