青藏高原可降水量时空分布对季风指数的响应  

Response of spatial and temporal distributions of precipitable water vapor on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau to monsoon index

作　　者：谢嘉喆 李芳芳 裘钧 XIE Jiazhe;LI Fangfang;QIU Jun(School of Civil Engineering and Water Resources,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China;School of Water Resources and Civil Engineering,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China)

机构地区：[1]青海大学土木水利学院,青海西宁810016 [2]中国农业大学水利与土木工程学院,北京100083 [3]青海大学省部共建三江源生态农牧业国家重点实验室,青海西宁810016

出　　处：《青海大学学报》2024年第4期49-55,共7页Journal of Qinghai University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2340210,91847302)。

摘　　要：为了解青藏高原地区可降水量时空分布在复杂气候系统中对不同环流指数的响应情况,基于该地区1971—2020年大气可降水量数据,通过厄尔尼诺指数、印度洋偶极子指数、西风环流指数与可降水量偏相关分析及滑动时间窗口对大气可降水量数据进行研究。结果表明:(1)青藏高原1971—2020年季风区与西风区可降水量集中分布在7—9月,且可降水量集中月份的年际变化速率较大。(2)青藏高原西风区8—9月可降水量分布与厄尔尼诺指数呈极显著负相关关系,季风区7月的可降水量分布与西风环流指数呈极显著负相关关系。(3)厄尔尼诺指数在21个时间窗口与西风区9月及季风区9月的可降水量分布均呈显著负相关关系(P<0.05),印度洋偶极子指数在17个时间窗口与季风区9月的可降水量分布呈显著正相关关系。印度洋偶极子指数的增强可能是导致青藏高原1991—2020年季风区9月可降水量变化速率迅速增加的原因。研究结果可为进一步探究青藏高原地区气候系统演变提供一定的数据参考。To comprehend the response of spatial and temporal distributions of precipitable water vapor(PWV)on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau region and its response to different circulation indices in a complex climate system,based on the atmospheric precipitation data from 1971 to 2020,the atmospheric precipitation data in the region is explored through El Niño/southern oscillation(ENSO),indian ocean dipole(IOD),westerly circulation index(WCI),partial correlation analysis of precipitation and sliding time window analysis.The results are as follows:(1)The precipitation in the monsoon and westerly regions of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1971 to 2020 is concentrated from July to September.The interannual variation rate of the months with concentrated precipitation is relatively high.(2)The distribution of PWV in the westerly region of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from August to September is significantly negatively correlated with ENSO index,while that in the monsoon region in July is significantly negatively correlated with WCI.(3)ENSO index shows a significant negative correlation with PWV in both westerly and monsoon regions in September across 21 time windows(P<0.05),while IOD index demonstrates a significant positive correlation with PWV in the monsoon region in September across 17 time windows.The enhancement of IOD may lead to the rapid increase in the rate of precipitation change in the monsoon region of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in September from 1991 to 2020.The research results can provide certain data references for further exploring the evolution of climate system in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau region.

关 键 词：青藏高原 可降水量 偏相关分析 印度洋偶极子 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]