猪毛菜属两种植物地理分布格局及其预测分析  

Geographical Distribution Patterns and Predictive Analysis of Two Plant Species in Salsola

作　　者：管庆伟 宋文 GUAN Qingwei;SONG Wen(Forestry and Grassland Service Center of the 5th Division of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps,Xinjiang Shuanghe 833408;Department of Forestry,College of Agriculture,Shihezi University,Xinjiang Shihezi 832000)

机构地区：[1]新疆生产建设兵团第五师林业和草原服务中心,新疆双河833408 [2]石河子大学农学院林学系,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《林业科技》2024年第5期24-30,共7页Forestry Science & Technology

摘　　要：全球气候改变引起极端天气是值得高度重视的问题之一,分布区变化是气候改变对植物影响最直接的体现。本研究通过电子手段获取两种猪毛菜属植物的当前分布数据和20个环境变量(包括海拔及19个气候变量),通过最大熵(Maxent)模型和地理位置信息系统(Arc GIS)技术,预测基准时期和未来两个时期(2050年、2070年)木本猪毛菜和珍珠猪毛菜的潜在适宜区分布。结果表明:木本猪毛菜和珍珠猪毛菜的潜在适宜区都在增加;在基准时期和未来两个时期,木本猪毛菜和珍珠猪毛菜的交叉区主要在内蒙古、新疆以及宁夏地区,总交叉区随时期变化呈扩增趋势;未来时期(2070年)木本猪毛菜和珍珠猪毛菜的潜在适宜区交叉区面积是521240.13 km2,潜在高适宜区交叉区面积是5988.66 km2;两种猪毛菜属植物的潜在适宜区同温度密切相关。Extreme weather caused by global climate change is one of the issues that deserves high attention,and changes in distribution areas are the most direct manifestation of the impact of climate change on plants.This study obtained current distribution data and 20 environmental variables(including altitude and 19 climate variables)of two species of the Salsola through electronic means.Using the Maximum Entropy(Maxent)model and Geographic Information System(ArcGIS)technology,the potential suitable distribution areas for the baseline period and the next two periods(2050 and 2070)of the Salsola arbuscula and Salsola passerina were predicted.The results showed that the potential suitable areas for both Salsola arbuscula and Salsola passerina were increasing;In the benchmark and future periods,the intersection area of Salsola arbuscula and Salsola passerina is mainly in Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang,and Ningxia,and the total intersection area shows an increasing trend with the change of time;The potential suitable area for the intersection of Salsola arbuscula and Salsola passerina in the future period(2070)is 521240.13 km2,The potential high suitability area of the intersection area is 5988.66 km2;The potential suitable areas for two species of plants in the Salsola are closely related to temperature.

关 键 词：猪毛菜属 最大熵模型 潜在适宜区 交叉分布区域 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学] S718.54[农业科学—林学]