漓江流域不同水期降水径流突变分析  

Precipitation and Runoff Mutation Analysis in Different Water Periods in Lijiang River Basin

作　　者：董千雨 张红艳 许景璇 代俊峰 DONG Qian-yu;ZHANG Hong-yan;XU Jing-xuan;DAI Jun-feng(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541004,Guangxi,China;Guangxi Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Pollution Control and Water Security in Karst Region,Guilin 541004,Guangxi,China;Guilin Hydrology Center,Guilin 541000,Guangxi,China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Control Theory and Technology,Guilin 541004,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学环境科学与工程学院,广西桂林541004 [2]广西岩溶地区水污染控制与用水安全保障协同创新中心,广西桂林541004 [3]桂林水文中心,广西桂林541004 [4]广西环境污染控制理论与技术重点实验室,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2024年第9期74-81,共8页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52269010);广西重点研发计划(桂科AB23026045);桂林市科技计划项目(20220114-2)。

摘　　要：丰、平、枯不同水期降水径流突变分析对于准确认识漓江水资源变化规律、科学实施水资源调控,具有十分重要的意义。分别选取漓江上中下游的桂林、阳朔、平乐3个水文站1968-2021年降水径流月尺度序列,分析降水径流年内和年际分布;分别对丰、平、枯水期单独采用Mann-Kendall检验法和滑动t检验进行突变分析,结合漓江上游防洪及漓江补水枢纽工程建设运行情况分析突变点及其成因;应用累积量斜率变化率比较法,分析降水和人为活动对径流突变的贡献率。研究结果表明:①漓江流域年降水量上游呈现递增趋势,下游呈现递减趋势;年径流量整体呈现上升趋势。②漓江流域上中下游3个站点在丰、平、枯水期的突变点不一致。③水利工程建设对径流的影响较为明显,尤其是枯水期。It is crucial to analyze the abrupt changes of rainfall runoff in different water periods of high and low seasons for accurately understanding the change law of water resources in Lijiang River and scientifically implementing the regulation of water resources.In this paper,bsed on the flooding,normal and dry season,the monthly scale series of precipitation runoff from 1968 to 2021 at Guilin,Yangshuo and Pingle hydrological stations located in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Lijiang River are selected to analyze the annual and interannual distribution of precipitation runoff.Mann-Kendall method and slide t-test method were used to analyze the mutation point and its causes in combination with the flood control in the upper reaches of the Lijiang River and the construction and operation of the Lijiang River water supplement project.Additionally,the contribution rate of precipitation and human activities to the abrupt change of runoff is analyzed by using the method of comparing the change rate of cumulative slope.The results show that:①the annual precipitation in the upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin shows an increasing trend,while the lower reaches experience a decreasing trend;The annual runoff shows an overall upward trend.②The abrupt change points of the three stations in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Lijiang River Basin in the flooding,normal and dry season are not consistent.③The impact of water conservancy project construction on runoff is obvious.

关 键 词：降水 径流 突变点 水期 漓江 

分 类 号：S273[农业科学—农业水土工程] TV213.4[农业科学—农业工程]