新疆棉花种植供给反应:1986—2021年  

The supply response of cotton cultivation in Xinjiang from 1986 to 2021

作　　者：高花彦 王鹏鹏 卢泉[1] GAO Huayan;WANG Pengpeng;LU Quan(College of Economics and Management,Tarim University,Alar,Xinjiang 843300)

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学经济与管理学院,新疆阿拉尔843300

出　　处：《塔里木大学学报》2024年第3期83-88,共6页Journal of Tarim University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(19BJY139);首批国家级新文科研究与实践项目(2021090093)。

摘　　要：新疆作为中国最大的优质棉生产基地,棉花供给对保障我国棉花安全具有重要意义。本研究基于1986—2021年新疆棉花种植面积和价格的时间序列数据,引入目标价格补贴政策,运用Nerlove模型对新疆棉花供给反应进行测度。结果表明,新疆棉花的短期和长期价格供给弹性值分别为0.140和0.369,均缺乏弹性,棉花供给存在时滞性,其种植面积对价格变动不敏感。滞后一期棉花种植面积和棉花价格指数、当期农业生产资料价格指数、目标价格补贴政策对当期棉花种植面积具有显著的正向影响。建议进一步完善棉花市场体系、调整补贴标准、优化棉花质量、加快技术投入。Xinjiang as China’s largest high-quality cotton production base,cotton supply is of great significance to China’s cotton security.Based on the time-series data of cotton planting area and price in Xinjiang from 1986 to 2021,while introducing the target price subsidy policy,the Nerlove model is applied to measure the cotton supply response in Xinjiang.The results show that the short-term and long-term price supply elasticity values of Xinjiang cotton are 0.140 and 0.369,respectively,both of which are inelastic,and there is a time lag in the supply of cotton,and its planting area is insensitive to price changes.Lagging a period of cotton planting area and cotton price index,the current period of agricultural production material price index,target price subsidy policy on the current cotton planting area has a significant positive impact.It is recommended to further improve the cotton market system,adjust the subsidy standard,optimize the quality of cotton,and accelerate technical inputs.

关 键 词：新疆棉花 NERLOVE模型 供给反应 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]