气候变化对水稻灌溉需水影响研究——以南昌市为例  

Study on the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Irrigation Water Requirement——A Case Study of Nanchang City,China

作　　者：姚鑫铭 周祖昊[1] 余根坚[1] YAO Xin-ming;ZHOU Zu-hao;YU Gen-jian(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2024年第9期102-108,共7页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：江西省水利科技重大项目(202022ZDKT03);“十四五”国家重点研发计划项目课题(2021YFC3000205);中国长江电力股份有限公司项目(2423020036)。

摘　　要：开展气候变化对主要粮食作物的需水影响研究,对于提升区域农业抵御气象灾害韧性、制定合理的农业水资源管理策略、促进区域农业可持续发展和保障粮食安全等方面具有重要意义。本研究以主要粮食作物水稻为研究对象,基于联合国粮农组织推荐的单作物系数法,建立了田间水量平衡模型,结合Pettitt突变检验、Mann-Kendall趋势分析的等数理统计手段,构建了气候变化对水稻早、中、晚不同生长期灌溉需水影响的综合评估框架。并以位于中国长江流域的南昌市为例开展研究,定量分析了1956-2021年南昌市主要气象要素的演变规律,对比分析了研究区内早、中、晚稻灌溉需水的特点和变化趋势,识别了不同生长期水稻灌溉需水年际变化的主要驱动因素。结果表明,近六十年来南昌市水稻生长期内气温显著增加、降水不显著增加,日照时数、风速的显著下降。总体上水稻灌溉需水量呈下降趋势,其中,中稻灌溉需水显著下降,早、晚稻呈不显著下降。水稻灌溉需水量的下降主要归结于降雨、风速和日照时数的变化。Conducting research on the impact of climate change on the water requirements of major food crops is of significant importance for enhancing the resilience of regional agriculture to meteorological disasters,developing rational agricultural water resource management strat-egies,promoting sustainable development in regional agriculture,and ensuring food security.This study focuses on rice,a major food crop,and establishes a field water balance model based on the single crop coefficient method recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organiza-tion of the United Nations.By integrating mathematical and statistical methods such as the Pettitt test for detecting abrupt changes and the Mann-Kendall trend analysis,a comprehensive assessment framework is developed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the irrigation water requirements of rice during its early,middle,and late growth stages.Taking Nanchang,a city located in China′s Yangtze River Basin,as a case study,this research quantitatively analyzes the evolution of major meteorological elements from 1956 to 2021 in Nanchang,com-pares the characteristics and trends of irrigation water requirements for early-,middle-,and late-season rice in the study area,and identi-fies the main drivers of inter-annual variations in irrigation water requirements for rice at different growth stages.The results show that over the past sixty years,there has been a significant increase in temperature during the rice growing season in Nanchang City,with no significant increase in precipitation,and a significant decrease in sunshine duration and wind speed.Overall,the irrigation water requirements for rice have shown a downward trend,with a significant decrease for middle-season rice and a nonsignificant decrease for early and late rice.The decrease in rice irrigation water requirements is mainly attributed to changes in rainfall,wind speed,and sunshine duration.

关 键 词：气候变化 水稻 作物需水量 灌溉需水量 南昌市 

分 类 号：TV93[水利工程—水利水电工程] S274.4[农业科学—农业水土工程]