中国夏季复合干热事件的时空演变规律及其与气候模态的关系  

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Summer Compound Dry-Hot Events inChina and Their Relationship with Climate Modes

作　　者：任嘉欣 王卫光[1,2] 魏佳 朱世峰[1,2] 邹佳成 REN Jia-xin;WANG Wei-guang;WEI Jia;ZHU Shi-feng;ZOU Jia-cheng(National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China;Hydrology and Water Resources Monitoring Center of Lower Ganjiang River,Yichun 336028,Jiangxi Province,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [3]赣江下游水文水资源监测中心,江西宜春336028

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2024年第9期173-180,共8页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2240218);河海大学优秀研究生学位论文培育项目(422003462)。

摘　　要：在全球变暖的背景下,复合干热事件即干旱和高温同时发生的频率、强度和范围不断增加,造成了严重的自然灾害和社会经济损失。然而,在中国这样一个气候和地形条件复杂的区域,复合干热事件的演变特征尚不清晰,其背后的潜在驱动机制也有待研究。为了更好地理解和应对复合干热事件,基于标准化干热指数(Standardized Dry and Hot Index,SDHI)研究了1961-2015年中国夏季复合干热事件的时空变化规律,对比分析了不同地区复合干热事件的频率和强度变化,并通过小波相干和多元线性回归等相关性分析方法探究了复合干热事件与同期大尺度气候模态之间的关系。研究结果表明:中国夏季复合干热事件的频率和强度均呈现出增加趋势,气温升高主导了复合干热事件严重程度的增加;厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)和大西洋多年代际振荡(Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO)与SDHI主要呈负相关关系,而太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO)和北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)与SDHI主要呈正相关关系;东北、华南和西南地区的复合干热事件受AMO影响明显,而西北和华北地区的复合干热事件主要受NAO影响;除华东和华中地区以外,4个气候模态的协同作用对复合干热事件的贡献率均超过了15%。研究结果可为应对气候变化,提高灾害防御能力,降低风险损失提供重要参考和科学依据。Against the backdrop of global warming,the frequency,intensity and range of compound dry-hot events,that is drought and extreme high temperature event occurring simultaneously are increasing and causing serious natural disasters and socio-economic losses.How⁃ever,in a region with complex climate and terrain conditions like China,the evolutionary characteristics of compound dry-hot events are still unclear,and the potential driving mechanisms require further study.In order to understand and deal with these events,the spatiotempo⁃ral variation of summer compound dry-hot events in China from 1961 to 2015 are studied based on the Standardized Dry and Hot Index(SDHI).The frequency and intensity changes of compound dry-hot events in different regions are compared and analyzed.Additionally,the relationship between these events and large-scale climate modes are explored by wavelet coherence,multiple linear regression and other cor⁃relation analysis method.The results show that:The frequency and intensity of the summer compound dry-hot events in China have in⁃creased,and the increase of temperature leads to the increase of the severity of compound dry-hot events;The El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)are negatively correlated with SDHI,while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)and North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)are positively correlated with SDHI;The AMO has a significant influence on compound dry-hot events in the northeastern,southern,and southwestern regions,whereas the NAO primarily impacts compound dry-hot events in the northwestern and northern regions;Except for East and Central China,the synergistic contribution of the four climate modes to the compound dry-hot events was more than 15%.The findings of this study offer valuable insights and scientific basis for addressing climate change,enhancing disaster resilience,and mitigating risk losses.

关 键 词：中国 复合干热事件 标准化干热指数 时空演变 气候模态 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]