人口负增长趋势下乡村人口变动对乡村产业振兴的作用机理及空间效应研究  

Research on the Mechanism and Spatial Effect of Rural Population Change on Rural Industry Revitalization under the Trend of Negative Population Growth

作　　者：宫攀[1] 贺媛丽 GONG Pan;HE Yuanli(College of Economic and Management,Qingdao University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266061,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛科技大学经济与管理学院,山东青岛266061

出　　处：《人口与发展》2024年第4期2-15,共14页Population and Development

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“中国劳动就业与失业统计制度改革及调查方法创新研究”(23BTJ008);山东省社科规划项目“城乡融合发展视阈下县域新型城镇化与乡村全面振兴协同推进机理与路径研究”(24CJJJ01)。

摘　　要：人口负增长趋势下我国乡村地区面临严峻的人口形势,直接影响到乡村振兴战略的实施。研究以2011—2020年全国30个省(自治区、直辖市)面板数据为基础,运用空间计量模型研究乡村人口变动对乡村产业振兴的影响机理及空间溢出效应。研究发现:(1)人口负增长使乡村地区劳动人口减少,消费市场萎缩,投资意愿下降,对产业振兴起到明显抑制作用;(2)乡村人力资本提升、乡村劳动力资源增加及乡村老龄化水平加深均可促进产业振兴的实现;(3)人口负增长、乡村人口变动对乡村产业发展存在空间溢出效应。应通过人才引进、优化劳动力配置等措施来积极应对人口负增长给乡村地区带来的挑战。Under the trend of negative population growth,China′s rural areas are facing a severe demographic situation,which significantly affects the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy.Based on panel data of 30 provinces,autonomous regions,or municipalities in China from 2011 to 2020,this paper studies the influence mechanisms and spatial spillover effect of rural population change on rural industrial revitalization using spatial econometric models.The results show that:(1)Negative population growth reduces the working population in rural areas,shrinks the consumer market,and reduces the willingness to invest,which significantly inhibits industrial revitalization.(2)The promotion of rural human capital,the increase of rural labor resources and the deepening of rural aging can all promote industrial revitalization.(3)Negative population growth and rural population changes have spatial spillover effects on rural industrial development.To actively respond to the challenges posed by negative population growth in rural areas,it is essential to introduce talent and optimize the allocation of the labor force.

关 键 词：人口负增长 乡村产业振兴 乡村人口变动 空间计量模型 

分 类 号：C912.82[经济管理]