民航气象中心对流协同预报产品可用性分析  

Availability Analysis of Collaborative Convective Forecast Product from the Civil Aviation Meteorological Center

作　　者：赵晨阳 张伟[1] 梁升[1] 徐梦翔 ZHAO Chenyang;ZHANG Wei;LIANG Sheng;XU Mengxiang(Aviation Meteorological Center,Air Traffic Management Bureau of CAAC,Beijing 100122,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空局空中交通管理局气象中心,北京100122

出　　处：《民航学报》2024年第4期96-100,154,共6页Journal of Civil Aviation

摘　　要：对流协同预报产品(collaborative convective forecast product,CCFP)是民航运行中一种重要的气象支持产品。目前,民航局空管局气象中心(以下简称北京)制作发布的CCFP产品暂未大规模推广使用,为了分析该产品的可用性及有效性,对2021~2022年夏季北京制作的CCFP产品进行检验评估。通过比较对流预报覆盖率、空报率、命中率、TS评分(threat score)可以发现,北京制作发布的CCFP产品夏季预报效果较好;预报时效越短,预报效果更优;在全国主要机场或航路上遭遇大面积雷雨影响时,CCFP产品提供的未来2~8 h精细化对流天气预报更有针对性和有效性,便于流量管理部门依据未来对流天气的分布和发展趋势,合理安排航空出行,最大限度地减少因对流天气造成的飞行不正常。Collaborative Convective Forecast Product(CCFP)is an important meteorological support product in civil aviation operation.At present,the CCFP products made and released by the Meteorological Center of the Air Traffic Management Bureau of the Civil Aviation Administration of China(hereinafter referred to as Beijing)have not been widely used.In order to analyze the availability and effectiveness of these products,the CCFP products made in Beijing in the summers of 2021-2022 are tested and evaluated.By comparing the coverage rate,false alarm rate,hit rate and threat score of convective forecast,it is found that the CCFP products produced and released by Beijing have better forecast effect in summer;the shorter the forecast time,the better the forecast effect;when a large area of thunderstorms affect major airports or routes across the country,the refined convective weather forecast for the next 2-8 hours provided by CCFP products is more targeted and effective and makes it easy for flow management departments to arrange air travel reasonably according to the future distribution and development trend of convective weather,and minimize flight irregularities caused by convective weather.

关 键 词：对流协同预报产品 覆盖率 准确率 TS评分 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]