地缘战略关系、相互依赖与大国联盟选择机制  

Geostrategic Relations,Interdependence,and the Mechanism of Alliance Choice by Major Powers

作　　者：秦立志 付腾浩 QIN Lizhi;FU Tenghao

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学国际事务与公共管理学院 [2]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院 [3]山东大学政治学与公共管理学院

出　　处：《国家安全论坛》2024年第4期3-23,90,共22页National Security Forum

基　　金：2021年国家社会科学基金一般项目“两极竞争背景下新兴崛起国‘反遏制战略’研究”(项目编号:21BGJ068)的成果。

摘　　要：为应对地缘战略关系不确定性风险,如何选择盟友是大战略的有机组成部分。本文试图区分多极体系与两极体系下大国联盟选择偏好的差异性,增加联盟理论的时空维度考察,更倾向于同潜在威胁结盟还是与天然盟友结盟,以及在结盟之后如何权衡本国在联盟关系中的战略自主性与有效应对威胁的安全考量等问题。分析新古典现实主义与地缘战略理论,可以提炼出地缘战略关系与相互依赖这两个既有联系又有区别的跨层次变量。研究发现,联盟的核心动机是制衡与管控威胁,国家更倾向于与地缘战略关系中的潜在威胁而不是天然盟友结盟。相互依赖产生的敏感性和脆弱性增加了国家协调关系的必要性,并从整体上提升了大国间的联盟需求。联盟选择是国家基于地缘战略利益的综合考量,而非结构现实主义关于均势自动生成论所揭示的线性逻辑,也不是国内政治决定论的思维模式。在联盟谈判过程中,地缘战略关系与相互依赖的动态变化以及由此产生的自主性诉求,塑造了谈判的结果与成效。分析对比德国、英国、法国和俄国在1870年至1914年间的联盟战略实践,借助半负面案例比较法以期对大国联盟战略选择提供有价值的历史参考。In order to cope with the risk of uncertainty in geostrategic relations,how to choose allies is an integral part of grand strategy.Taking geostrategic relations and interdependence as the core variables,this paper attempts to answer the questions of whether major powers prefer to ally with potential threats or with natural allies based on their assessment of geostrategic relations,and how to balance their strategic autonomy in the alliance with security considerations for effectively responding to threats after the establishment of alliance.By analyzing neoclassical realism and geostrategic theory,we can extract the two cross-level variables of geostrategic relations and interdependence,which are both related and distinct.The study finds that the core motivation of alliances is to balance and manage threats,and countries are more inclined to ally with potential threats in geostrategic relations than with natural allies.The sensitivities and vulnerabilities created by interdependence increase the need for countries to coordinate their relationship and the overall need for alliances among major powers.The choice of allies is the result of comprehensive considerations based on the country's geostrategic interests,rather than the linear logic revealed by structural realism on the automatic generation of the balance of power,or the mode of thinking of domestic political determinism.In the process of alliance negotiations,the dynamics of geostrategic relations and interdependence,as well as the resulting demand for autonomy,shape the outcome and effectiveness of the negotiations.This paper analyzes and compares the alliance strategy in practice of Germany,United Kingdom,France and Russia from 1870 to 1914,in order to provide valuable historical insights for the strategic choice of allies by major powers.

关 键 词：新古典现实主义 地缘政治 对称性联盟 战略不确定性 安全困境 

分 类 号：E81[军事—战略学] D813[政治法律—国际关系]