我国省域鸡肉价格的空间特征及传导机制分析  

Analysis of spatial characteristics and transmission mechanism of provincial chicken prices in China

作　　者：谢宁 黄奕娴 李颖 刘小春[1] 翁贞林[1,2] XIE Ning;HUANG Yixian;LI Ying;LIU Xiaochun;WENG Zhenlin(College of Economics and Management,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045,China;Jiangxi Rural Revitalization Strategy Research Institute,Nanchang 330045,China)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学经济管理学院,南昌330045 [2]江西省乡村振兴战略研究院,南昌330045

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2024年第9期232-243,共12页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：江西省社会科学“十四五”基金项目(23YJ22);江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(GL22233);江西省现代农业产业技术体系产业经济岗专家项目(JXARS-09)。

摘　　要：为解决我国肉鸡产业区域发展不平衡问题,基于2009—2021年省际面板数据,利用探索性空间数据分析法、广义预测误差方差分解和空间杜宾模型,探究我国省域鸡肉价格的空间特征和传导机制。结果表明:1)我国鸡肉价格正向空间关联显著,大多数省份具有“高—高”型和“低—低”型集聚特征;2)鸡肉价格的省际联动水平与肉鸡生产和生猪生产的区域布局密切相关,肉鸡主产区和生猪主产区通常也是鸡肉价格波动的中心区域;3)鸡肉价格存在显著的空间溢出效应。猪肉价格的直接效应和间接效应都显著为正,禽肉产量的直接效应和间接效应都显著为负,肉鸡饲料价格的直接效应显著为正,猪肉产量只对邻近区域鸡肉价格的影响显著但对区域内的鸡肉价格影响不显著。建议构建畜禽产品全国统一大市场,建立鸡肉和猪肉价格联动协调机制,针对不同地区分级管控,以及优化肉鸡产业区域布局,着力提升中西部欠发达地区肉鸡产业发展水平。In order to balance the regional development in broiler industry,this study employs the exploratory spatial data analysis,generalized forecast error variance decomposition and spatial Durbin model to investigate the spatial characteristics and transmission mechanism of chicken prices using panel data from 2009 to 2021.The results show that:1)Chicken prices in China exhibit significant positive spatial correlation,and most provinces showing either a“high-high”or“low-low”agglomeration pattern.2)The inter-provincial linkage level of chicken prices is closely related to the regional distribution of chicken and pork production,and the main chicken and pork producing areas are generally located the central regions of chicken price fluctuations.3)Significant spatial spillover effects exist among different regional chicken prices.The direct and indirect effects of chicken pork prices are significantly positive,while the direct and indirect effects of poultry meat production are significantky negative.The direct effect of broiler feed prices is significantly positive.Pork production only significantly affects the neighboring regions’chicken prices but has no significant impact on chicken prices within the region.This study recommends the establishment of a unified national market for livestock and poultry products,the establishment of a coordinated mechanism for the linkage of chicken and pork prices,the implementation of differentiated control measures for different regions.optimization of the regional layout of the chicken industry to improve the development level of the chicken industry in underdeveloped areas in the central and western regions.

关 键 词：鸡肉价格 空间特征 价格传导 探索性空间数据分析法 广义预测误差方差分解 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]