系统性风险防范与化解——基于金融稳定政策的研究  

Prevention and Resolution of Systemic Risks:A Study Based on Financial StabilityPolicies

作　　者：方意 黄丽灵 荆中博[3] FANG Yi;HUANG Li-ling;JING Zhong-bo(National Academy of Development and Strategy,Renmin University of China;The First Seafront Fund Management Co.,Ltd;School of Management Science and Engineering,Central University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院 [2]前海开源基金管理有限公司 [3]中央财经大学管理工程学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2024年第7期47-65,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国金融安全统计监测、预警与对策研究”(批准号23&ZD058)。

摘　　要：健全金融风险防范化解机制是维护金融稳定的基石。为更好地认识与理解金融稳定政策的有效性,本文借鉴货币政策传导机制框架分析三类金融稳定政策的传导机制,并基于“相对成本—相对收益”关系量化政策的成本与收益。其中,政策工具为注资政策、资产购买政策与银行合并政策,政策中介目标为非核心负债占比、机构关联性、相对规模。结果表明:在政策效果方面,注资政策和资产购买政策效果明显,是较好的政策工具;银行合并政策效果较不稳定,高度依赖于合并银行与被合并银行的风险特征。在作用机制方面,以控制非核心负债占比为目标时,这些政策还会通过控制机构关联性来降低银行业系统性风险。特别地,通过影响机构关联性来控制风险非常重要,但是操作不当会造成风险上升。此外,政策在不同时期的实施效果不同,注资政策与资产购买政策均在压力期间的效果较好,银行合并政策则是在非压力时期的效果相对明显。本文的研究结论对于如何选取合适的政策工具以防范化解系统性风险具有较强的现实意义。Establishing a solid financial risk prevention and resolution mechanism is the cornerstone of maintaining financial stability.Currently,China's financial risks are widespread,which expose the deep-seated contradictions accumulated in the long-term development of the banking system.With continuous external shocks,such as the rising geopolitical risks and the global economic downturn,regulatory authorities face huge challenges in maintaining financial stability.However,there is a lack of literature analyzing the generation mechanism of systemic risks and providing empirical evidence for the effects of related policy instruments.To better understand the effectiveness of financial stability policies,this paper systematically analyzes the generation mechanism of systemic risks.Based on the mechanism,this paper extracts three risk factors,including relative size,non-core liabilities ratio,and institutional interconnection,as the intermediary targets of the policies.Subsequently,this paper conducts a theoretical framework of financial stability policies in combination with the above mechanism and summarizes the policy transmission mechanisms during periods of financial stress.Specifically,according to existing regulatory practices and regulations,this paper selects capital injection,asset purchase,and bank mergers as policy instruments.Our analysis reveals that the capital injection policy takes the relative size and non-core liabilities as intermediary targets,while the asset purchase policy and bank merger policy take all factors as intermediary targets.Finally,this paper quantifies the costs and benefits of each policy.In policy simulations,this paper employs the annual reports data of 36 listed commercial banks as sample data.The sample period spans from 2007 to 2019.The results are as follows.Firstly,capital injection policy and liquidity injection policy have efficient impacts on systemic risks.The effects of bank merger policy are highly dependent on the policy implication.Secondly,in terms of intermediary target

关 键 词：系统性风险 注资政策 资产购买政策 银行合并政策 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]