代际收入向上流动的长期估计与国际比较——兼论“了不起的盖茨比曲线”的理论机制与特征差异  

Long-term Estimates and International Comparisons of Intergenerational Income Upward Mobility:A Discussion on the Theoretical Mechanisms and Characteristic Differences of the Great Gatsby Curve

作　　者：邹薇[1] 马瑞祺 ZOU Wei;MA Rui-qi(School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2024年第7期66-84,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“解决相对贫困的扶志扶智长效机制研究”(批准号20&ZD168);国家自然科学基金面上项目“代际传递、邻里效应与教育贫困:基于社会网络经济学视角”(批准号71973102)。

摘　　要：代际收入向上流动性关系到社会创新活力、经济发展与收入分配的动态演进,然而既有文献对绝大多数发展中国家的代际收入向上流动性缺乏估计,难以全面分析和比较世界各经济体代际收入流动趋势及成因。本文基于一种不依赖于面板数据的Copula方法,结合世界不平等数据库提供的各经济体1980—2022年截面收入分布数据及部分国家1910—1970年历史数据,估计了全球125个经济体的代际向上流动率及趋势,并验证了本文所使用方法的准确性和稳健性。研究结果表明:改革开放以来,中国代际向上流动率处于国际高位且稳步增长,1980—1992年队列平均代际向上流动率约为86.16%,分别比世界平均水平、发达经济体和发展中经济体高出约23.62、20.29和24.62个百分点;美国、法国等代表性发达国家长期代际向上流动率整体呈倒U型趋势,第二次世界大战后队列的代际向上流动率持续下降;不同经济体的代际向上流动率趋势存在显著差异。进一步使用反事实分析,对典型国家1980年以来队列的代际向上流动率趋势进行分解,发现20世纪80年代以来的不平等加剧对代际向上流动率产生了负向影响。本文重新检验“了不起的盖茨比曲线”,发现与发达经济体相比,盖茨比曲线在发展中经济体相对平缓。本文总结了盖茨比曲线的形成机制,并从技能偏向型技术进步的激励效应视角阐释了盖茨比曲线在发展中经济体独特经验现象背后的成因。最后,本文提出了促进中国等发展中国家实现代际向上流动平稳持续增长的政策建议。Intergenerational mobility portrays a family's ability to move up or down the socioeconomic ladder over one or several generations and reflects the state of social opportunity equality.It is crucial for understanding the dynamic evolution of social innovation,economic development,and income distribution.However,providing a comprehensive description of intergenerational income mobility across global economies has been a persistent challenge.This difficulty arises primarily due to the lack of micro-level longitudinal survey data necessary for estimating intergenerational income mobility in most developing economies.This paper introduces a novel method to estimate intergenerational upward mobility without relying on panel data.This method only requires the marginal income distribution from cross-sectional data.By parameterizing a Copula with the intergenerational correlation coefficient,it can estimate reliable intergenerational upward mobility rates.Empirical verification in this paper shows that this Copula-based estimation method is insensitive to the correlation coefficient,which reflects relative intergenerational mobility.Even if the correlation coefficient is biased,this method can still yield relatively accurate intergenerational upward mobility rates without altering the trend of the series.Utilizing annual income distribution data from the World Inequality Database(WID)and intergenerational education correlation coefficients from the Global Database on Intergenerational Mobility,this paper estimates intergenerational upward mobility for 125 global economies.This includes a long-term series of intergenerational upward mobility rates for 22 economies,spanning cohorts from 1910 to 1992.The findings indicate that after the reform and opening-up,China has achieved a high and steadily growing level of intergenerational upward mobility on an international scale.For the 1980-1992 cohorts,the average intergenerational upward mobility rate was approximately 86.16%,exceeding the global,developed economies,and develop

关 键 词：代际向上流动率 COPULA方法 反事实分析 盖茨比曲线 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济]