中国旱涝急转事件时空变化特征  

Temporospatial characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alteration events in China

作　　者：孙锦浩 苏布达 王东方[1,2] 黄金龙 王炳炜 戴然[1,2] 姜彤 SUN Jinhao;SU Buda;WANG Dongfang;HUANG Jinlong;WANG Bingwei;DAI Ran;JIANG Tong(School of Geographical Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,Jiangsu,China;Institute for Disaster Risk Management,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学地理科学学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学灾害风险管理研究院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2024年第8期13-23,共11页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委-联合国环境署合作研究项目(42261144002);江苏省研究科研与实践创新计划(KYCX23_1292);广西重点研发项目(桂科AB22080060)。

摘　　要：【目的】旱涝急转事件造成的社会经济和生态环境影响严重,是我国发生频繁且广泛的一种复合型事件。明确我国旱涝急转事件发生的时空变化特征,可为地区制定防灾减灾措施提供科学依据。【方法】基于1961—2021年气象观测数据,使用Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散发,然后计算逐日的标准化降水蒸散指数(daily-SPEI),分流域对中国旱涝急转事件的频次、影响范围和趋势的变化特征进行分析。【结果】结果显示:(1)时间趋势上,1961—2021年中国受旱涝急转事件影响的范围以0.6%/10a的趋势增加,且平均每年有19.8%的范围发生旱涝急转事件。(2)空间分布上,旱涝急转事件主要分布在淮河流域、黄河流域、长江流域和松花江流域,事件发生频次在30次以上地区分别占流域总面积的63.1%、20.7%、15.0%、14.6%,事件频次最高达到53次。(3)中国旱涝急转事件存在明显的季节差异,主要发生在夏季事件发生频次在5次以上的空间范围占中国总面积的一半以上;其次是春季和秋季,事件发生频次在5次以上的空间范围占比均不足15%;冬季发生最少,事件发生频次在5次以下。【结论】结果表明:中国旱涝急转事件的影响范围整体呈增加趋势,中国中东部和东北部是旱涝急转事件发生频繁地区。研究结果可为旱涝急转事件的监测与应对提供科学基础。[Objective]Drought-flood abrupt alteration events have significant socio-economic and ecological impacts and are a frequently occurring and widespread compound event in China.Clarifying the spatiotemporal characteristics of Drought-flood abrupt alteration events can provide scientific evidence for regional disaster prevention and mitigation measures.[Methods]Based on meteorological observations from 1961 to 2021,daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(daily-SPEI)was calculated using the Penman-Monteith method to analyze the frequency,spatial extent,and trend of Drought-flood abrupt alteration events across different river basins in China.[Results]The result indicate that:(1)Temporally,from 1961 to 2021,the affected area by Drought-flood abrupt alteration events in China has shown an increasing trend of 0.6%/10a with an average annual occurrence rate of 19.8%.(2)Spatially,these events are mainly distributed in the Huai River Basin,Yellow River Basin,Yangtze River Basin,and Songhua River Basin,with areas experiencing over 30 occurrences accounting for 63.1%,20.7%,15.0%,and 14.6%of the total basin area,respectively,and the highest frequency reaching 53 occurrences.(3)There are distinct seasonal differences in aDrought-flood abrupt alteration events in China,with the majority occurring in the summer season,covering over half of China′s total area with more than 5 occurrences;followed by spring and autumn,each covering less than 15%of the total area;and the fewest occurrences are in winter,with less than 5 occurrences.[Conclusion]The findings suggest an overall increasing trend in the spatial extent of Drought-flood abrupt alteration events in China,with the central and northeastern regions being hotspots for frequent occurrences.The study result provide a scientific basis for monitoring and responding to drought-flood abrupt alteration events.

关 键 词：复合型事件 旱涝急转事件 逐日SPEI 时空变化特征 气候变化 时空分布 长江流域 洪水 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]