地缘政治演变与全球能源供应链重建  

Restructuring of the Global Energy Supply Chain Amid Geopolitical Shifts

作　　者：孙倩 薛进军[2,3,4] 孙克娟 Sun Qian;Xue Jinjun;Sun Kejuan

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,100084 [2]日本名古屋大学经济学院,464-008 [3]对外经济贸易大学全球价值链研究院,100029 [4]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,650500 [5]河南财经政法大学经济学院,450046

出　　处：《世界社会科学》2024年第4期121-136,245,共17页SOCIAL SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL

基　　金：碳排放权交易省部共建协同创新中心课题“实现1.5度目标的能源转型要求”的支持。

摘　　要：当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局,地缘政治变化带来了能源市场的剧烈震荡,深刻影响着全球能源链的构建。在中美贸易摩擦以及俄乌冲突背景下,地缘政治危机对全球能源供应链造成冲击,能源供应链正在向碎片化、区域化方向发展。地缘政治冲突下能源供应链的演变可能有如下表现:欧盟“脱俄罗斯化”,巩固欧美能源供应链;日美澳印加强合作,稳固“菱形”能源合作模式;亚洲供给线加强,形成欧亚能源供应链;欧佩克维持基本地位,保障全球能源安全;欧洲加速绿色转型,走向能源独立。在此基础上,利用GTAP-E模型对俄乌冲突和部分能源供应链新演变的影响进行模拟分析,可以把握未来全球能源贸易格局的变化。在复杂多变的国际背景下,为保障国家能源安全及稳定发展,中国不仅要加快能源转型,确保能源安全,同时也要坚定中国立场,积极发挥主动权。The world today is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century,and geopolitical changes have brought about violent shocks in the energy market,profoundly affecting the global energy supply chain.This paper systematically reviews the impact of geopolitical tensions on global energy supply chain from the two aspects:China-US trade frictions and Russia-Ukraine conflict,and finds that the energy supply chain is moving towards fragmentation and regionalization.This paper presents new changes and developments in energy supply chain under the geopolitical dynamics:the EU’s“de-Russification”consolidates the European and American energy supply chain;Japan,the United States,Australia and India strengthen cooperation to stabilize the“diamondshaped”energy cooperation model;supply lines in Asia are reinforced,forming a Eurasian energy supply chain;The“OPEC”maintains its basic position to ensure global energy security;Europe accelerates its green transition towards relative energy independence.Based on the above ideas,GTAP-E model is used to simulate the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and forecast the new patterns of some energy supply chains.In the context of a complex and changing international backdrop,to ensure national energy security and stable development,China must not only accelerate energy transition and ensure energy security,but also firm China’s position and actively play the initiative in the world.

关 键 词：地缘政治 能源供应链重建 模拟分析 中国应对 

分 类 号：D08[政治法律—政治学]