基于“配料法”对两种类型强对流天气的临近预报再分析  

Reanalysis of Nowcasting for Two Types of Severe Convective Weather According to"Ingredient-based Methodology"

作　　者：孙巍巍 陈杰 陈志昭 Sun Weiwei;Chen Jie;Chen Zhizhao(Ningde Meteorological Bureau,Fujian Province,Ningde 352100)

机构地区：[1]福建省宁德市气象局,福建宁德352100

出　　处：《中阿科技论坛（中英文）》2024年第9期113-117,共5页China-Arab States Science and Technology Forum

摘　　要：文章利用常规观测资料、ERA51°×1°再分析资料、卫星云图等资料,结合“配料法”思想,基于层结稳定度、水汽条件、抬升触发条件和垂直风切变等构成要素的对比分析,对伴随不同天气现象的两种强对流天气过程的临近预报可行性再分析,以增强预报员对短时强天气预报的主观订正能力和决策服务能力。研究结果表明:(1)“03·23”过程低空急流是层结不稳定的建立者;“06·06”过程是不利于降水效率增大的上干冷下暖湿的不稳定层结。(2)“03·23”暖湿气流强盛,低层水汽充足;“06·06”中层较干,水汽仅集中在边界层。(3)“03·23”低空急流为水汽供应者、强对流触发者和组织者,有系统性整层抬升条件;“06·06”垂直方向上的温度差动平流形成的热力不稳定为主要抬升触发条件。(4)“03·23”上升气流与环境风相互作用产生的扰动压力梯度与合成的垂直加速度对上升速度有显著影响;“06·06”没有强的垂直风切变很难形成高度组织化的对流。总体可见:在短时临近预报中重点分析垂直风切变和低层水汽,可对冰雹的形成进行有效提前预警。Drawing on conventional observation data,ERA51°×1°reanalysis data,satellite cloud charts and the ingredientbased methodology,the thesis sets out to reanalyze the feasibility of nowcasting of two types of severe convective weather accompanied by different phenomena based on the comparative analysis of the atmospheric stratification stability,water vapor conditions,uplift triggering conditions and vertical shear,in order to enhance the correction ability and decision-making ability of forecasters.The research findings indicate that:(1)the low-level jets during the 03·23 process are the builder of atmospheric stratification instability;while 06·06 process is an unstable stratification with a dry and cold upper layer and a warm and humid lower layer,which is unfavorable to precipitation efficiency.(2)The warm and humid airflow of 03·23 is strong,and there is sufficient water vapor in the lower stratification;The middle layer of 06·06 is relatively dry,with water vapor concentrating in the boundary layer.(3)The 03·23 low-level jets serve as a water vapor supplier,strong convective trigger,and organizer,with systematic uplift conditions throughout the entire layer;The thermal instability caused by temperature differential advection in the vertical direction of 06·06 is the main trigger for the uplift.(4)The disturbance pressure gradient and synthesized vertical acceleration generated by the interaction between the uplift and the environmental wind on 03·23 exert a significant impact on velocity;In the case of 06·06,highly organized convection is difficult to form due to the absence of strong vertical shear.In summary,it can be seen that focusing on analyzing vertical shear and low-level water vapor in short-term forecasting can provide early warning for hailstorms.

关 键 词：“配料法” 层结稳定度 水汽条件 抬升触发 垂直风切变 

分 类 号：P412[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]