基于马尔可夫链与改进最小路法的柔性配电网运行可靠性评估  

Operational reliability assessment of flexible distribution network based on markov chain and improved minimum path method

作　　者：刘敬敬 白牧可 樊文婷 张立梅[1] LIU Jingjing;BAI Muke;FAN Wenting;ZHANG Limei(College of Information Science and Technology,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 071000,China;China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192,China)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学信息科学与技术学院,河北保定071000 [2]中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京100192

出　　处：《供用电》2024年第9期24-33,52,共11页Distribution & Utilization

基　　金：国家自然科学基金企业创新发展联合基金项目(U23B6007)。

摘　　要：高比例分布式电源(distributed generation,DG)并网,使配电网呈现出高度不确定性和强动态特性,给配电网运行可靠性带来了新的挑战。考虑配电系统运行的多种不确定因素,提出了马尔可夫链与改进最小路法的柔性配电网运行可靠性评估方法。首先,以分析智能软开关(soft open point,SOP)的运行方式与控制模式为基础,研究了不同类型的SOP对配电网运行可靠性的影响。其次,考虑源荷不确定性,采用均值漂移聚类生成源荷运行状态,并基于马尔可夫链获得源荷多状态转移概率。然后,根据高比例DG与SOP接入后孤岛形成的多样性,采用Dijkstra算法研究了单DG与多DG孤岛的构建原则。考虑元件老化、偶然失效和天气因素的影响,利用贝叶斯网络获得各元件综合时变故障率,并基于改进最小路法建立单DG与多DG孤岛的运行可靠性模型,进而获得系统运行可靠性。最后,以改进的F4馈线系统为例,验证了所提方法的准确性与有效性。The high proportion of distributed generation(DG)access to distribution network presents high uncertainty and strong dynamic characteristic,which brings new challenges to operational reliability.Considering multiple uncertainties in distribution system operation,a flexible distribution network reliability assessment method based on Markov chain and improved minimum path method is proposed.Firstly,based on analyzing the operation and control mode of soft open point(SOP),the impact of different types of SOP on the operational reliability of distribution network is studied.Then,considering the source and load uncertainty,mean-drift clustering is used to generate the source and load operating status,and obtain the multi-status transfer probabilities based on Markov chain.Secondly,based on the diversity of island formation after high proportion of DGs and SOPs are connected,Dijkstra algorithm is used to investigate the construction principles of single DG and multi-DG island.Considering the effects of aging,accident failure and weather factors,Bayesian network is used to obtain the time-varying failure rate of component,and the operational reliability model of the single DG and multi-DG island is established based on the improved minimum path method,which obtains the operational reliability of system.Finally,the accuracy and validity of the proposed method is verified by taking the example of improving the F4 feeder system.

关 键 词：高比例分布式电源 柔性配电网 马尔可夫链 孤岛划分 改进最小路法 运行可靠性 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]