基于LSTM的气候变化对中西太平洋围网黄鳍金枪鱼和鲣CPUE影响的滞后效应  

Lag effect of climate change on CPUE of Thunnus albacares and Katsuwonus pelamis in the western and central Pacific Ocean purse seine fishery:An LSTM-Based study

作　　者：张健[1,2,3,4] 宋厚成 刘文俊 石建高[5] Zhang Jian;Song Houcheng;Liu Wenjun;Shi Jiangao(College of Marine Living Resource Sciences and Management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;National Engineering Research Centre for Oceanic Fisheries,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources,Ministry of Education,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Key Laboratory of Ocean Fisheries Development,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences,Shanghai 200090,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学海洋生物资源与管理学院,上海201306 [2]上海海洋大学国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海201306 [3]上海海洋大学大洋渔业资源可持续开发教育部重点实验室,上海201306 [4]上海海洋大学农业农村部大洋渔业开发重点实验室,上海2013064 [5]中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所,上海200090

出　　处：《海洋学报》2024年第7期62-72,共11页

基　　金：农业农村部全球重要鱼种资源动态监测评估项目、国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFD0900803)。

摘　　要：黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacares)和鲣(Katsuwonus pelamis)是大洋性高度洄游物种,也是全球大洋性渔业的主要捕捞对象,其种群分布和资源密度容易受气候变化所引起的海洋环境变化影响,且存在响应滞后。为了探索气候变化对中西太平洋海域(WCPO)低龄黄鳍金枪鱼和鲣群体影响及滞后效应,本研究基于长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)分析了海洋尼诺指数(ONI)对1982年至2021年间WCPO围网黄鳍金枪鱼和鲣单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)的影响,利用不同时间步长模拟不同滞后期(0~12个月)下CPUE对ONI响应。结果表明:LSTM适用于对黄鳍金枪鱼和鲣等大洋性种群资源密度与ONI等环境因素间滞后效应的分析;WCPO赤道南北不同海域围网黄鳍金枪鱼和鲣CPUE对ONI的响应存在滞后,且不同海域的最佳滞后期均为12个月;最佳滞后期与渔获群体年龄相当,表明WCPO黄鳍金枪鱼和鲣的繁殖能力或幼鱼存活率易受到气候变化及其引起的海洋环境变动影响,表现出时长为捕捞年龄的滞后时间。研究方法与结果为后续开展WCPO关键物种群体分布研究提供了资源变动机制上的新思路。Yellowfin tuna(Thunnus albacares)and skipjack tuna(Katsuwonus pelamis)are pelagic and highly migratory species,serving as primary targets in global pelagic fisheries.Their population distribution and abundance are susceptible to the impacts of climate-induced changes in the marine environment,exhibiting a response lag.In order to explore the influence of climate change on the juvenile populations of yellowfin tuna and skipjack tuna in the western and central Pacific Ocean(WCPO)and the associated lag effects,this study,based on Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)neural networks,analyzed the impact of the Oceanic Niño index(ONI)on the Catch per Unit Effort(CPUE)of yellowfin tuna and skipjack tuna in the WCPO purse seine fishery from 1982 to 2021.Different time step lengths were employed to simulate the lag effects(0−12 months)of CPUE response to ONI.The results indicate LSTM is a suitable tool for analyzing the lag effects of relationship between the abundance of pelagic species,such as yellowfin tuna and skipjack tuna,and environmental factors like ONI.In the WCPO regions north and south of the equator,there exists a time lag in the response of juvenile yellowfin tuna and skipjack tuna CPUE to ONI,with the optimal lag period being 12 months for each region.The correspondence of the optimal lag period with the age of the harvested population(nearly 1 year)suggests that the reproductive capacity or survival rate of juvenile yellowfin tuna and skipjack tuna is influenced by climate change and the resulting changes in the marine environment.The research methodology and results provide new insights for subsequent studies in analyzing the stock dynamics and distribution of key species in the WCPO.

关 键 词：黄鳍金枪鱼 鲣 海洋尼诺指数 滞后效应 LSTM 中西太平洋 

分 类 号：P714.5[天文地球—海洋科学]