基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对江西双季稻生长期和产量的影响  

Simulating effects of climate change on growth season and yield of double cropping rice in Jiangxi province based on DSSAT model

作　　者：张方亮 刘文英[2] 田俊 汪建军 刘丹 杨军 李迎春 章毅之 ZHANG Fang-Liang;LIU Wen-Ying;TIAN Jun;WANG Jian-Jun;LIU Dan;YANG Jun;LI Ying-Chun;ZHANG Yi-Zhi(Meteorological Science Research Institute of Jiangxi Province,Nanchang 330096,Jiangxi,China;Jiangxi Agricultural Meteorology Center,Nanchang 330096,Jiangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省气象科学研究所,江西南昌330096 [2]江西省农业气象中心,江西南昌330096

出　　处：《作物学报》2024年第10期2614-2624,共11页Acta Agronomica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFD2300203);国家自然科学基金项目(41965008);中国气象局“气候生态产品价值实现研究”青年创新团队项目(CMA2024QN15);江西省气象局面上项目(JX2022M10)资助。

摘　　要：江西是中国双季稻的主要种植地区。气候变化严重影响了双季稻生产。基于江西省1981—2022年逐日气象资料和双季稻作物资料,对DSSAT模型进行调参验证;利用验证后的DSSAT模型,分析江西省双季稻生长期和产量空间分布和时间变化趋势;采用t检验方法,明确气候变化对江西早稻和晚稻的影响差异。结果表明:(1)江西早稻(晚稻)播种期至开花期天数、播种期至成熟期天数和产量模拟值与观测值的归一化均方根误差分别为1.87%(1.86%)、2.05%(2.36%)和6.05%(7.30%),D指标分别为0.97(0.98)、0.96(0.96)和0.95(0.94);(2)固定播期和品种条件下,1981—2022年江西早稻和晚稻生长期均呈显著缩短趋势,平均每10年分别减少2.22 d和1.61 d;研究期间江西早稻和晚稻潜在产量均呈显著下降趋势,平均每10年分别减少181.30 kg hm^(-2)和276.16 kg hm^(-2);(3)t检验表明,江西早稻生长期气候倾向率极显著地小于晚稻,而江西早稻潜在产量气候倾向率极显著地大于晚稻。DSSAT模型可较好的模拟江西双季稻生长发育和产量。气候变化对江西早稻生长期和晚稻潜在产量影响更加明显。本研究为江西双季稻作物模型研究、产量预报和气候变化评估提供了科学依据。Jiangxi province is a key region for double cropping rice cultivation in China.Climate change has significantly impacted double cropping rice production in this area.This study validates the DSSAT model using daily meteorological data and crop data for double cropping rice in Jiangxi Province from 1981 to 2022.The validated DSSAT model is then used to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal variation trends of the growth season and yield of double cropping rice in Jiangxi province.Additionally,the t-test method is employed to identify differences in the effects of climate change on early rice and late rice in the province.The results are as follows:(1)The normalized root mean square error(NRMSE)between simulated and observed values for the sowing-to-flowering duration,sowing-to-maturity duration,and yield of early rice(late rice)in Jiangxi province are 1.87%(1.86%),2.05%(2.36%),and 6.05%(7.30%),respectively.The D-index for these parameters are 0.97(0.98),0.96(0.96),and 0.95(0.94),respectively.(2)With fixed sowing dates and varieties,the growth seasons for early rice and late rice in Jiangxi province significantly shortened from 1981 to 2022,with an average decrease of 2.22 and 1.61 days per decade,respectively.The potential yields of early rice and late rice also significantly decreased over the same period,with an average reduction of 181.30 kg hm^(-2) and 276.16 kg hm^(-2) per decade,respectively.(3)The t-test results indicate that the climate trend for the growth season of early rice in Jiangxi Province is significantly lower than that of late rice.Conversely,the climate trend for the potential yield of early rice is significantly higher than that of late rice.The DSSAT model effectively simulates the growth and yield of double cropping rice in Jiangxi province.The findings highlight that climate change has more pronounced effects on the growth season of early rice and the potential yield of late rice in Jiangxi province.This study provides a scientific basis for crop model research,yield prediction,and

关 键 词：DSSAT 早稻 晚稻 生长期 水稻潜在产量 

分 类 号：S511[农业科学—作物学]