政策性森林保险高质量发展时空演进及影响因素分析  

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factor analysis of high-quality development of policy-based forest insurance

作　　者：邢方圆 焦奕珩 侯方淼[1] XING Fangyuan;JIAO Yiheng;HOU Fangmiao(Economics and Management School,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《林业经济》2024年第6期5-27,共23页Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘双碳’目标下中国林产工业绿色低碳发展路径及政策研究”(22BJY222);北京新农村建设研究基地2022年北京农学院省部级科研平台开放课题“北京农业产业结构优化与场景设计研究”(BUAPSP202207)。

摘　　要：在全球气候变化加剧和我国经济高质量发展的关键交织时期,政策性森林保险实现高质量发展对提高林业适应气候变化能力与深化集体林权制度改革具有重要意义。文章基于2013—2021年面板数据,利用赋权法和核密度估计,定量化测度政策性森林保险高质量发展水平并分析其时空演变特征,然后利用双向固定效应模型探讨政策性森林保险市场需求与市场集中度对其高质量发展的影响,验证政府财政保费补贴的调节效应。研究发现:第一,随着时间的推移,我国政策性森林保险高质量发展水平具有缓慢提升的趋势,全国平均值稳定在0.20~0.30之间,但仍处于低发展水平阶段。第二,我国政策性森林保险高质量发展的区域不平衡较为明显,西部地区的平均值(0.40)高于东中部地区(0.26),存在两极分化的现象,“马太效应”愈加明显,但地区不平衡性逐渐得到缓解。第三,目前政策性森林保险高质量发展的主要驱动力仍是“量的扩张”(0.54),“质的提升”(0.46)未来发展潜力巨大。第四,森林保险市场需求扩张和市场集中度降低是政策性森林保险实现高质量发展的内生动力,同时财政保费补贴的调节效应较为明显,强化了市场需求对其高质量发展的正向影响,但未削弱市场集中度的负向作用。基于此,文章提出引导林业经营主体主动投保、鼓励政策性森林保险市场适度竞争以及实施差异化保费补贴政策等政策启示。In the critical intertwined period of global climate change intensification and high-quality economic development in China,the high-quality development of policy-based forest insurance is of great significance for improving the capability of forestry to adapt to climate change and deepening the reform of collective forest tenure system.Based on the panel data from 2013 to 2021,by using empowerment method and kernel density estimation,this paper quantitatively measured the high-quality development level of policy-based forest insurance in China,and analyzed its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics,then used two-way fixed effects model to explore the impact of policy-based forest insurance market demand and market concentration on its high-quality development,and verified the moderating effect of government financial premium subsidies.The results showed that:Firstly,over time,the high-quality development level of policy-based forest insurance in China had a steady improvement trend,with the national average stabilizing between 0.20 and 0.30,but it was still at a low development level.Second,the regional imbalance in the high-quality development of policy-based forest insurance in China was obvious,the average value in the western regions(0.40)was higher than that in the eastern and central regions(0.26),and there was a phenomenon of polarization,and the"Matthew effect"was becoming more and more obvious,but the regional imbalance was gradually alleviated.Third,at present,the main driving force of high-quality development of policy-based forest insurance was still"quantitative expansion"(0.54),while"qualitative improvement"(0.46)had great potential for future development.Fourth,the expansion of forest insurance market demand and the reduction of market concentration were the endogenous driving forces for policybased forest insurance to achieve high-quality development,and the moderating effect of financial premium subsidies was obvious,which strengthened the positive impact of market demand on its high-quality d

关 键 词：森林保险 高质量发展 水平测度 时空演进 

分 类 号：F842.66[经济管理—保险]