基于ARIMA-GM模型的矿井涌水量预测  

Mine Water Inflow Prediction Based on ARIMA-GM Model

作　　者：王颖 刘郑秋 李成帅 白锦琳 杨文杰 赵勇 WANG Ying;LIU Zhengqiu;LI Chengshuai;BAI Jinlin;YANG Wenjie;ZHAO Yong(College of Natural Resources,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Tai′an 271019,China;Geophysical Survey Team of Shandong Coalfield Geology Bureau,Jinan 250104,China;China Coal Energy Xinjiang Hongxin Coal Industry Limited Company,Changji 831100,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学资源学院,山东泰安271019 [2]山东省煤田地质局物探测量队,济南250104 [3]中煤能源新疆鸿新煤业有限公司,新疆昌吉831100

出　　处：《煤炭技术》2024年第9期154-157,共4页Coal Technology

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金重点项目(ZR2020KE023);国家自然科学基金项目(42002282)。

摘　　要：在煤矿开采过程中,矿井涌水量预测对矿井安全生产具有重要意义。以新疆苇子沟煤矿为例,前期采用比拟法、水平廊道法等传统方法预测矿井涌水量误差较大,基于灰色系统理论与时间序列分析,采用GM(1,1)灰色模型和时间序列ARIMA模型分别对首采区涌水量进行预测,通过平均相对误差确定权重进而建立ARIMA-GM组合模型,对比分析涌水量预测结果与实测矿井涌水量。研究结果表明:采用ARIMA-GM组合模型预测首采区涌水量时,涌水量预测值为28.45 m^(3)/h,历年实测值与模型预测值的平均相对误差仅为5.91%,模型拟合优度较好,预测精度较高。ARIMA-GM模型可以满足矿井涌水量短期预测的需要,并为苇子沟煤矿防治水工作提供参考依据。In the process of coal mining,the prediction of mine water inflow is of great significance to mine safety production.Taking Weizigou coal mine in Xinjiang as an example,the traditional methods such as analogy method and horizontal well method had a large error in predicting the mine water inflow in the early stage.Based on grey system theory and time series analysis,ARIMA model in the time-series and GM(1,1)grey model were used to predict the water inflow in the first mining area respectively.The weight was determined by the average relative error,and then the ARIMA-GM combined model was established to compare and analyze the predicted water inflow with the measured water inflow.The results show that the predicted value of water inflow in the first mining area is 28.45 m^(3)/h when the ARIMA-GM combined model is used to predict water inflow in the first mining area,and the average relative error between the measured value and the predicted value over the years is only 5.91%.The model has a good degree of fit and high prediction accuracy.The ARIMA-GM model can meet the need of short-term prediction of mine water inflow and provide reference for water control work in Weizigou coal mine.

关 键 词：安全工程 矿井涌水量 灰色系统理论 时间序列 ARIMA-GM模型 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TD742[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]