供需空间错配视角下天然气消耗对空气污染的影响研究  

Study on the Impact of Natural Gas Consumption on Air Pollution from the Perspective of Spatial Mismatch Between Supply and Demand

作　　者：肖琴[1] 赵月川 程先楠 靳翌箫 XIAO Qin;ZHAO Yuechuan;CHENG Xiannan;JIN Yixiao

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,昆明650093

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2024年第9期173-190,共18页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“空气污染下居民健康贫困风险动态识别及干预策略研究”(72463018),项目负责人:肖琴。

摘　　要：本文使用2013—2021年中国30个省(区、市)的面板数据,采用空间计量法研究天然气供需的空间错配,引入地理空间权重和经济空间权重,并结合天然气生产分析天然气消耗对空气污染的空间溢出效应和影响机制。研究发现:(1)天然气消耗增加会显著降低PM2.5排放,且天然气消耗越多,空气质量指数越低(p<0.05)。这表明天然气消耗有利于减轻空气污染;(2)由于各省份能源禀赋不同,天然气供需存在空间错配。且在引入地理空间权重和经济空间权重后发现,天然气消耗存在正向空间溢出效应,天然气生产存在负向空间溢出效应;(3)对于天然气供给大于需求的省份,天然气的使用偏好更能降低空气污染,这些省份能够通过用天然气消耗替代煤炭消耗,实现化石能源内部清洁化转型;(4)本文引入各省份GDP作为门槛变量,发现只有当各省份GDP跨越门槛值时,天然气消耗会显著改善空气质量,这是因为各省份的经济发展为化石能源内部转型的基础建设提供了保障。Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 2013 to 2021,this paper uses the spatial metric method to study the spatial mismatch of natural gas supply and demand,introduces geographical spatial weight and economic spatial weight,and analyzes the spatial spillover effect and impact mechanism of natural gas consumption on air pollution combined with natural gas production.The results showed that:(1)The increase in natural gas consumption significantly reduced PM2.s emissions,and the higher natural gas consumption,the lower the air quality index(p<0.05).This indicates that gas consumption is beneficial for improving air pollution.(2)Due to the different energy endowments of provinces,there is a spatial mismatch between the supply and demand of natural gas.Moreover,after introducing geographic spatial weights and economic spatial weights,it is found that there is a positive spatial spillover effect for gas consumption and a negative spatial spillover effect for gas production.(3)For provinces where the supply of natural gas exceeds the demand,the preference for the use of natural gas can better reduce air pollution.These provinces are improving air pollution by replacing coal consumption with natural gas consumption and achieving a cleaner transition within fossil energy sources.(4)This paper introduces the GDP of each province as the threshold variable,and finds that only when the GDP of each province exceeds the first threshold value,natural gas consumption will significantly improve air pollution.The likely reason is that economic development in the provinces guarantees the construction of infrastructure for internal conversion to fossil energy.

关 键 词：天然气消耗 天然气生产 空间计量模型 空气污染 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]