中国制造业转移到印度对中国GDP和就业的影响分析  

The Impact of Manufacturing Relocation from China to India on China's GDP and Employment

作　　者：张晓旭 祝坤福[3] 汪寿阳 ZHANG Xiaoxu;ZHU Kunfu;WANG Shouyang(Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Center for Forecasting Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Entrepreneurship and Management,ShanghaiTech University,Shanghai 201210,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京100190 [3]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872 [4]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [5]上海科技大学创业与管理学院,上海201210

出　　处：《计量经济学报》2024年第4期924-959,共36页China Journal of Econometrics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71988101,72173130);国家资助博士后研究人员计划(GZC20232916)

摘　　要：随着我国劳动力成本上升以及资源环境约束的加剧,叠加地缘政治冲突,导致相关产业或生产环节向东南亚、南亚和墨西哥等新兴经济体转移.其中,印度的发展潜力备受关注,全球产业链的"中国→印度转移模式"对中国的冲击与威胁更大.为此,本文构建了衡量产业向外转移对母国影响的事前量化模型,设计了超长期、中长期和中短期三类情景,采用反事实分析,衡量了不同情景下印度承接中国产业转移对中国GDP和就业的影响.研究结果表明,我国产业向印度外移将产生巨大的社会经济冲击.在超长期,这一产业转移可能导致中国GDP降低15.6%,从业人员总体收入下降16.8%,同时减少就业人数1.1亿人,在中长期、中短期的影响也较为显著.分行业来看,低研发强度和中低研发强度制造业在中短期和中长期视角下的转移对中国经济的影响都较大.以计算机为代表的高研发制造业在超长期视角下的转移也对中国经济造成较大的负面影响.本文的定量分析有助于预判未来产业布局变化对中国经济的冲击,以提前布局应对策略.结合中长期国际经济形势展望和国内区域经济、产业经济发展特征,我们提出了三点政策建议,为政府相关部门的决策提供科学参考.With the rising labor costs and increasing resource and environmental constraints in China,coupled with geopolitical conflicts,related industries or production processes are shifting to emerging economies such as Southeast Asia,South Asia,and Mexico.Among these,India's development potential has garnered significant attention,and the"China-to-India industrial relocation model"in the global industrial chain poses a greater impact and threat to China.This paper constructs a pre-quantitative model to measure the impact of industrial relocation on the home country.It designs three scenarios—Ultra-long-term,medium-to-long-term,and short-to-medium-term—And uses counterfactual analysis to assess the impact of India's absorption of China's industrial relocation on China's GDP and employment under different scenarios.The research results indicate that the relocation of industries from China to India will generate significant socio-economic shocks.In the ultra-long-term,this industrial transfer could lead to a 15.6%reduction in China's GDP,a 16.8%decrease in the overall income of the workforce,and a reduction in the number of employed people by 110 million.The impacts are also substantial in the medium-to-long-term and short-to-medium-term scenarios.By sectors,the relocation of low and medium-low R&D intensity manufacturing sectors has a significant impact on the Chinese economy in both the short-to-medium and medium-to-long term perspectives.The relocation of high R&D intensity manufacturing sectors,represented by the computer industry,also causes considerable negative effects on the Chinese economy in the ultra-long-term perspective.This quantitative analysis helps anticipate the economic impact of future changes in industrial layout on China's economy and facilitates the development of preemptive strategies.Based on the medium-to-long-term international economic outlook and the characteristics of domestic regional and industrial economic development,we propose three policy recommendations to provide scientific refere

关 键 词：产业转移 经济影响 投入产出分析 反事实分析 全球价值链重构 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F249.2F125F135.1