大宗商品产业集群化能否缓解输入型通胀?来自新疆电解铝产业的证据  

Does Commodity Clustering Mitigate Imported Inflation?Evidence from Xinjiang's Electrolytic Aluminum Industry

作　　者：黄蓉蓉 徐然 高翔 林康 杨翠红 HUANG Rongrong;XU Ran;GAO Xiang;LIN Kang;YANG Cuihong(School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China;Academy of Mathematics and System Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Management,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [2]青岛理工大学管理工程学院,青岛266520 [3]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [4]西安交通大学管理学院,西安710049

出　　处：《计量经济学报》2024年第4期960-980,共21页China Journal of Econometrics

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金青年项目(ZR2023QG089);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72103184);国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目(71988101);国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA062)

摘　　要：在一系列国际重大突发事件的叠加影响下,国际大宗商品价格剧烈波动,给我国带来了显著的输入型通胀风险.立足区域资源禀赋推动大宗商品产业集群化发展可能是应对这一风险的可行方案,但其实际效果尚未被定量论证.本研究开发了区域间投入产出价格模型,并在此基础上集成计量经济模型和假设提取法,构建了输入型通胀风险的综合测算框架.基于这些定量模型,本研究实证分析了新疆电解铝产业集群化对输入型通胀风险的潜在影响.实证结果表明,新疆电解铝产业的集群化发展一方面通过产业规模扩张增强了总体物价水平与国际铝价的“绑定”,导致国际铝价对工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)的综合传导效应上升,另一方面也通过提升自给能力和增强定价权,减少国内价格体系对国际铝价波动的敏感性.尽管截至2017年的测算结果显示前者的影响机制强于后者.但从长期来看,在尊重各区域资源禀赋优势的前提下,在产业政策的宏观调节和应急管理下,后者的影响机制将进一步强化,并最终起到平抑输入型通胀的作用.Shocked by a series of major international events,global commodity prices have exhibited significant volatility,posing a considerable risk of imported inflation for China.Developing industrial clusters of commodities based on regional resource endowments may be a feasible strategy to address this problem,but its empirical impact has not yet been demonstrated.This study develops an inter-regional input-output price model,integrating econometric models and the hypothetical extraction method,to construct a comprehensive framework for assessing imported inflation.Using this framework,the mitigating effects of Xinjiang's electrolytic aluminum industry clustering on imported inflation is explored.The empirical results indicate that,on one hand,the expansion of industrial scale strengthens the overall price level's linkage with international aluminum prices,leading to an increased transmission effect on the producer price index(PPI).On the other hand,the industrial clustering enhances self-suffciency and pricing power,thereby reducing the domestic price system's sensitivity to international market fluctuations.Although the results up to 2017 show that the former mechanism is stronger than the latter,in the long term,with respect for regional resource endowments and with proper macroeconomic regulation and emergency management policies,the latter impact will be further strengthened,and ultimately mitigating imported inflation.

关 键 词：输入型通胀 投入产出价格模型 产业集群 新疆电解铝产业 

分 类 号：F426.32[经济管理—产业经济] F822.5F125