重大事件作用下的产业系统结构和韧性:一个基于投入产出-整数规划网络的实证研究  

Structure and Resilience of Industrial System under Impacts from Major Events:An Empirical Study Based on Networks Constructed with Input-output and Integer Programming Approaches

作　　者：谢赤[1,2,3] 李兆东 王纲金 祝由[1,2,3] 曾志坚 XIE Chi;LI Zhaodong;WANG Gangjin;ZHU You;ZENG Zhijian(Business School of Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China;Key Laboratory of Industrial Digital Intelligence Finance of Hunan Province,Changsha 410082,China;Institute for Intelligent Economy and Digital Society of Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学工商管理学院,长沙410082 [2]产业数智金融湖南省哲学社会科学重点实验室,长沙410082 [3]湖南大学智慧经济与数字社会研究院,长沙410082

出　　处：《计量经济学报》2024年第4期981-1008,共28页China Journal of Econometrics

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(21ZDA114);国家自然科学基金(71971079,72271087,71871088)

摘　　要：全面考察产业系统的结构和韧性,以及重大事件背景下它们的变化,有助于深入理解产业之间的生产协作关系,维护系统整体的稳定运行,进而科学指导资源优化配置,推动产业转型升级.本文以投入产出表为数据基础,将复杂网络理论与整数规划方法相结合,构建投入产出-整数规划复杂产业关联网络,探讨中国产业系统结构与韧性的变化轨迹.实证结果表明:1)产业系统结构显著影响GDP增长速度,前者越密集则后者越快速,反之亦然.自2011年以来的10年里,实际中的产业系统结构朝越来越稀疏的方向发展;2)积极的经济政策施行、供给侧结构性改革等将缩短产业之间资源传递距离,改善产业系统结构,但其作用具有局部性;而欧债危机升级、中美贸易摩擦加剧、新冠疫情暴发等由于延长了上述距离,造成负面冲击,其影响呈现出全局性;3)与经济高速增长时期相比,在中低速增长期间产业系统的结构更为松散,导致某些产业在更大范围内充当“中介”来协调资源以满足生产的需要,在贸易摩擦和新冠疫情发生时这一现象显得更加突出;4)从2011至2020年,产业系统的韧性始终保持在较高水平,但总体上表现出减弱的趋势.在相关经济政策和市场改革的驱动下,产业系统面对重大事件冲击的抵御、适应和恢复能力得以显著提升.A comprehensive examination on the structure and resilience of the industrial system,and their changes in the context of major events,contributes to a deep understanding about the relationships of production cooperation among industries and maintains the stability of the system;moreover,this is helpful for scientifically allocating production resources and promoting the transformation and upgrading of industries.This paper takes input-output tables as the data foundation,and combines complex network theory with integer programming method to construct an"input-output-integer programming"complex industrial linkage network;furthermore,it explores the variations in the structure and resilience of China's industrial system.The empirical results show that:ⅰ)The structure of the industrial system significantly impacts the GDP growth rate,and the denser the former is,the faster the latter is,and vice versa.Over the past decade since 2011,the structure has become increasingly loose;ⅱ)major events,such as stimulative economic policies implementation and supply-side structural reform,shorten the distance for resource transfer between industries and improve the structure of the industrial system,but their impacts on the system are localized;however,the events like european debt crisis escalation,China-US trade friction intensification,and COVID-19 outbreak extend the distances,resulting in negative shocks and widespread impacts;ⅲ)compared to in periods of high-speed economic growth,the structure of the industrial system loosens in times of medium to low growth,leading certain industries to play an"intermediary"role cross a large range to coordinate resource allocations and satisfy production demands.This phenomenon is particularly evident during China-US trade frictions and COVID-19;ⅳ)from 2011 to 2020,the resilience of the industrial system consistently remains at a high level but exhibits a weakening trend.Driven by relevant economic policies and market reforms,the system significantly improves its defense,adaptati

关 键 词：产业系统 结构 韧性 复杂网络 投入产出 整数规划 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]