通胀不确定环境下政府最优税收和债务问题研究  

The Study on the Problem of Optimal Government Taxation and Debt under the Uncertainty of Inflation

作　　者：费为银[1] 张桂银 费晨 FEI Weiyin;ZHANG Guiyin;FEI Chen(School of Mathematics-Physics and Finance,Anhui Polytechnic University,Wuhu 241000,China;Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽工程大学数理与金融学院,芜湖241000 [2]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《计量经济学报》2024年第4期1064-1090,共27页China Journal of Econometrics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72301173,62273003)

摘　　要：随着经济发展,政府税收和债务的问题也成为了人们关注的焦点之一.尤其是在经济下行时期,如何通过合理调控税收水平和债务水平来实现经济的稳定发展,也成为了政府考虑的问题之一.考虑到现实生活会面临通货膨胀的冲击,本文将构建一个在通货膨胀背景下政府最优税收和债务模型,试图分析通胀对我国最优税收和债务的影响.首先利用随机分析理论推导通胀不确定环境下政府实际债务价值的演化动力学方程.接着,利用动态规划原理推导出通胀不确定环境下最优实际家庭价值的哈密尔顿-雅可比-贝尔曼(HJB)方程.最后,对政府最优税收和债务进行数值模拟,分析通胀对政府最优税收和债务的影响,以及对达到债务容量的时间影响,并预测我国到达债务容量的时间.研究结果表明,在最优税收和债务下,较高的预期通胀率和较低通胀波动率都会降低税率和债务的边际成本,并会缩短到达债务容量的时间.With the development of the economy,the issue of government taxes and debt has also become the focus of attention.Especially during the economic downturn,how to achieve stable economic development through reasonable regulation and control of tax and debt levels has also become the focus of government discussions.Considering that real life will face the impact of inflation,this paper will construct an optimal government tax and debt model in the context of inflation,and try to analyze the impact of inflation on China's optimal tax and debt.Firstly,the stochastic analysis theories are used to derive the dynamic equation of the real government debt value in the inflationary uncertainty environment,and then the Hamilton-Jacobian-Bellman(HJB)equation of the optimal real government value in the inflationary uncertainty environment is derived by using the dynamic programming principle.Finally,the numerical simulation of the optimal tax and debt of the government is carried out to analyze the impact of inflation on the optimal tax and debt of the government,as well as the impact on the time to reach the debt capacity,and predict the time when China will reach the debt capacity.The results suggest that under optimal taxation and debt,higher expected inflation and lower inflation volatility reduce the marginal cost of tax and debt,and shorten the time to reach debt capacity.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 最优税收和债务 金融市场 动态规划 债务容量 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学] F812