经济增长目标设置理念的转变与制造业结构优化  

The Transformation of the Concept of Economic Growth Target Setting and the Optimization of the Manufacturing Industry Structure

作　　者：刘明 杨国镯 LIU Ming;YANG Guozhuo(Economic Research Institute of the Belt and Road Initiative,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,China;School of Statistics and Data Science,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,China;Laboratory of Digital Economy and Social Computing Science of Gansu,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学“一带一路”经济研究院,兰州730020 [2]兰州财经大学统计与数据科学学院,兰州730020 [3]甘肃省数字经济与社会计算科学重点实验室,兰州730020

出　　处：《计量经济学报》2024年第4期1172-1196,共25页China Journal of Econometrics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“制造业高质量发展驱动力的统计测度与路径提升研究”(21BTJ006);甘肃省软科学项目“新发展格局下甘肃省重点产业链布局策略研究”(23JRZA410)

摘　　要：设置经济增长目标是地方政府宏观经济管理的重要手段.本文着重考察经济增长目标设置理念转变对制造业结构优化的影响效果,通过逻辑推理和文献归纳提出地区经济增长目标对制造业结构优化的影响机制假说,并基于中国2001-2020年31个省区(不包括香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和中国台湾省)的省级面板数据进行实证检验.调节效应分析显示,地区经济增长目标设置理念转变后地区经济增长目标对制造业结构合理化具有显著促进作用,施加环境约束能有效弱化地区经济增长目标对制造业结构高度化的抑制作用;地区经济增长目标加码程度减弱有助于弱化地区经济增长目标对制造业结构优化的抑制作用;中介机制检验结果表明,政府绩效考核下地区经济增长目标能通过投资结构扭曲效应、技术创新挤占效应以及要素市场发育阻滞效应对制造业结构高度化和合理化产生抑制作用,这为减少经济增长目标设置的负向影响以及促进制造业优化发展提供了可行路径.Setting economic growth targets is an important means of macroeconomic management for local governments.This paper focuses on the impact of the change of economic growth target setting concept on the optimization of manufacturing industry structure,puts forward the hypothesis of the influence mechanism of regional economic growth target on manufacturing industry structure optimization through logical reasoning and literature induction,and conducts an empirical test based on the provincial panel data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 2001 to 2020(not including Hong Kong region,Macao region,and Taiwan China).The analysis of moderating effect shows that the regional economic growth target has a significant promoting effect on the rationalization of the manufacturing industry structure after the change of the concept of regional economic growth target setting,and the imposition of environmental constraints can effectively weaken the inhibitory effect of the regional economic growth target on the upgrading of the manufacturing industry structure.The weakening of the increase in the regional economic growth target will help weaken the inhibiting effect of the regional economic growth target on the optimization of the manufacturing industry structure.The results of the intermediary mechanism test show that the regional economic growth target under the government performance appraisal can inhibit the height and rationalization of the manufacturing industry structure through the distortion effect of investment structure,the crowding effect of technological innovation and the stunting effect of factor market development,which provides a feasible path for reducing the negative impact of economic growth target setting and promoting the optimal development of the manufacturing industry.

关 键 词：地区经济增长目标 制造业结构高度化 制造业结构合理化 投资结构 技术创新 要素市场发育 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F424