人口高质量发展水平测度、空间分布与动态演进  

Measurement,Spatial Distribution,and Dynamic Evolution of High-quality Population Development Level

作　　者：刘建国 李悦 Liu Jianguo;Li Yue(School of Economics,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学经济学院,兰州730020

出　　处：《统计与决策》2024年第17期64-69,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BRK003);甘肃省科技计划项目(软科学专项)(22JR4ZA069)。

摘　　要：为更好地对人口高质量发展水平开展定量分析,文章从4个维度选取13个指标,对我国30个省份2011—2021年的人口高质量发展水平进行测度。在此基础上,采用空间相关性分析、核密度估计以及Markov链对我国人口高质量发展水平的空间分布特征与动态演进趋势进行分析。结果显示:(1)全国层面,我国人口高质量发展水平呈上升趋势,空间集聚特征明显。(2)区域层面,地区发展不均衡现象突出,东部地区的人口高质量发展水平始终高于全国水平,地区整体水平提升速度快、差距小;中部地区稳步提升,极化现象明显缓和;西部地区水平较低,区域差距扩大。(3)不同发展水平均具有一定的稳定性,但也存在变化的可能性;同时,邻近省份人口高质量发展水平的变化也会影响本省人口高质量发展水平的跃迁。In order to quantitatively analyze the high-quality population development level,this paper selects 13 indicators from four dimensions to measure the high-quality population development level of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021.On this basis,the paper uses spatial correlation analysis,kernel density estimation and Markov chain to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and dynamic evolution trend of China’s high-quality population development level.The findings go as below:(1)At the national level,the high-quality population development level is on the rise,and the characteristics of spatial agglomeration are obvious.(2)At the regional level,the imbalance of regional development is prominent.The high-quality population development level of the eastern region is always higher than that of the whole country,and the overall level of the region is rising fast,with small gaps.In the central region,the level has steadily improved,and the polarization phenomenon is alleviated obviously.In western region,the level is low and the gap is widening.(3)Different levels have a certain stability,but change is still possible.At the same time,the change of high-quality population development level in neighboring provinces will also affect the transition of the high-quality development level of the population of the province..

关 键 词：人口高质量发展 空间相关性 动态演进 核密度估计 MARKOV链 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]