多元逐步回归分析法在煤层含气量预测中的应用——以胡家河井田4号煤层为例  

Application of Multiple Stepwise Regression Analysis in Gas Content Prediction of Coal Seams——A Case Study of the No.4 Coal Seam in Hujiahe Minefield

作　　者：惠鹏 郭燕珩 陈小军 HUI Peng;GUO Yanheng;CHEN Xiaojun(Shaanxi Hancheng Tianjiu Grouting Exploration Co.,Ltd.,Shaanxi 715499;Shaanxi Coalbed Methane Development and Utilization Co.,Ltd,Shaanxi 710065)

机构地区：[1]陕西韩城天久注浆勘探有限责任公司,陕西715499 [2]陕西省煤层气开发利用有限公司,陕西710065

出　　处：《中国煤层气》2024年第3期33-37,共5页China Coalbed Methane

摘　　要：煤层含气量是煤层气选区评价的重要指标,也是煤层气储量计算的重要参数。本文以胡家河井田4号煤层为例,依据井田煤层气井钻孔测试资料,通过进行单因素分析从诸多影响含气量因素中筛选出主控因素,优选运用多元逐步回归法结合主控因素建立了4号煤层含气量的预测模型,结果表明,胡家河4号煤层含气量主导收到煤层埋深和煤层厚度的影响,经计算其预测值与实测值基本相符,为研究区煤层气资源评价和开发选区提供了重要的指导。The gas content of the coal seam is an important indicator for the evaluation of coalbed meth-ane area selection,and is also a crucial parameter for the calculation of coalbed methane reserves.This paper takes the No.4 Coal Seam of Hujiahe Minefield as a case study,utilizes the borehole test data of coalbed methane wells,and identifies the main control factors from many factors affecting gas content through a single fact analysis.By using the multivariate stepwise regression method combined with the main control factors,a prediction model for the coal gas content of the No.4 Coal Seam is established.The results show that the gas content of Hujiagou No.4 Coal Seam is primarily influenced by the coal seam depth and thickness.After calculating,the predicted values are consistent with the measured val-ues,which provides important guidance for the evaluation and development of coalbed methane resources in the study area.

关 键 词：煤层含气量 单因素分析 多元逐步回归分析 预测模型 胡家河井田 

分 类 号：P618.13[天文地球—矿床学]