我国猪粮价格联动关系研究  

Research on the Dynamic Change of Pig Grain Price

作　　者：高云 王娟 李健 毛翔飞 GAO Yun;WANG Juan;LI Jian;MAO Xiangfei(Institute of Rural Development and Construction,Academy of Planning and Design,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas,Beijing 100125;Beijing Zhongyu Ruide Architectural Design Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100000,China)

机构地区：[1]农业农村部规划设计研究院乡村发展和建设研究所,北京100125 [2]北京中宇瑞德建筑设计有限公司,北京100000

出　　处：《东北农业科学》2024年第4期66-73,共8页Journal of Northeast Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：农业农村部规划设计研究院农规项目(QD202114)。

摘　　要：非洲猪瘟疫情暴发后,我国生猪产能快速下滑,猪肉供需形势一度偏紧,价格一路飙升,作为猪饲料主要原料的玉米、大豆等粮食价格也随之波动。2021年初,疫情得到有效控制,生猪产能全面恢复,饲料粮价格随着饲料需求增加而上涨,猪粮价格之间必然存在一定的相关关系。本研究重点分析猪粮产业发展特点和猪粮价格波动的均衡关系,并对未来猪粮供需形势及价格走势进行了研判。研究发现,猪价影响着粮价,粮价也影响着猪价,不同品种的粮价存在一定的替代效应。未来猪肉价格随着猪周期性变化而变化但逐步趋于平稳,玉米、豆粕价格变动会有一定滞后性,其中玉米价格与猪价同向变化,豆粕价格与猪价反向变化,二者均呈现相对稳定的周期性波动。After the outbreak of African swine fever, China′s pig production capacity rapidly declined. The supply and demand situation for pork was once tight with prices soaring all the way. As the main raw materials for pig feed,the prices of grains such as corn and soybeans also fluctuated accordingly. At the beginning of 2021, the epidemic was effectively controlled. The production capacity of live pigs was fully restored and the price of feed grains increased with the increase of feed demand. There must be a certain correlation between the prices of pig grains. This article focuses on analyzing the development characteristics of the pig grain industry and the equilibrium relationship between the fluctuation of pig grain prices. It also conducts research and judgment on the future supply and demand situation and price trends of pig grain. The study found that the pig price affects the grain price, and the grain price also affects the pig price. There is a certain Substitution effect for the grain price of different varieties. In the future, pork prices will change with the cyclical changes of pigs, but gradually stabilize. There will be a certain lag in the price changes of corn and soybean meal. The corn prices changing in the same direction as pig prices and soybean meal prices changing in the opposite direction. They both show relatively stable cyclical fluctuations.

关 键 词：猪粮价格 变动关系 玉米 豆粕 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]