1958—2023年广东省年降水量及其年内分配演变特性研究  

Evolution Characteristics of Annual Precipitation and Intra-Annual Allocation in Guangdong Province from 1958 to 2023

作　　者：杨军 徐敬华[1] 刘昌慧 YANG Jun;XU Jinghua;LIU Changhui(Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower,Guangzhou 510630,China;South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510630,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水利水电科学研究院,广东广州510630 [2]华南农业大学,广东广州510630

出　　处：《人民珠江》2024年第9期1-10,共10页Pearl River

基　　金：广东省水利科技创新项目(2020-21)。

摘　　要：降水量及其年内分配特征是引发区域洪涝灾害的关键因素,明确降水集中度时空变化规律可为区域防洪规划和水资源管理提供理论依据。为探析广东省年降水量及其年内分配演变特性,利用1958—2023年广东省国家气象站的逐日降水数据,根据逐年降水集中度(Annual Concentration Index,ACI)公式对广东省降水集中分布特征定量表征,并综合采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、Sen′s slope趋势分析、反距离权重和克里金插值法对广东省年降水量和降水集中度指数的时空演变特征进行研究。结果表明:广东省年降水量的空间分异特征具有显著地域性,呈现“北少南多、东西少中部多”的格局;广东省ACI空间分布呈现“粤北低、沿海高”的分布格局,在空间上自西南向东北逐渐减小;总体上,广东省年降水量呈现不显著增加趋势,降水集中度呈现降低趋势;大尺度地形、城市化进程等是影响区域降水的关键因素,环境要素和人类活动相互作用对年降水量和ACI分布格局形成具有显著影响。Characteristics of precipitation and its intra-annual allocation are the key factors triggering regional floods,and clarifying the spatial and temporal variations of precipitation concentration can provide a theoretical basis for regional flood control planning and water resources management.In order to analyze the evolution characteristics of annual precipitation and its intra-annual allocation in Guangdong Province,the daily precipitation data from National Meteorological Stations in Guangdong Province from 1958 to 2023 were used,and the distribution characteristics of precipitation concentration in Guangdong Province were quantitatively characterized based on the annual concentration index(ACI)formula.In addition,the Mann-Kendall(MK)trend test,Sen's slope trend analysis,inverse distance weighting,and Kriging interpolation methods were comprehensively adopted to study the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of annual precipitation and ACI in Guangdong Province.The results show that:The spatial distribution of annual precipitation in Guangdong Province is distinctly geographical,showing a trend of"small precipitation in northern,eastern,and western regions and large precipitation in southern and central regions".The spatial distribution of ACI in Guangdong Province shows a distribution pattern of"low ACI in northern Guangdong and high ACI along the coast",with a gradual decrease in spatial distribution from southwest regions to northeast regions.Overall,the annual precipitation in Guangdong Province shows a non-significant increasing trend,while the ACI shows a decreasing trend.The large-scale topography and urbanization process are the key factors affecting regional precipitation,while the interaction of environmental factors and human activities has a significant impact on the formation of annual precipitation and ACI distribution patterns.

关 键 词：降水量 降水集中度 时空变化 广东省 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]