中国省际水资源效率与韧性测度及其协同演化分析  

Measurement of Water Resource Efficiency and Resilience in China's Provinces and Their Co-evolutionary Analysis

作　　者：景燕燕 郑德凤[1] 张茜芮 JING Yanyan;ZHENG Defeng;ZHANG Xirui(School of Geographical Sciences,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学地理科学学院,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《人民珠江》2024年第9期47-55,共9页Pearl River

基　　金：辽宁省经济社会发展研究课题(2023lslybkt-080);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地“海洋可持续发展”学科交叉专向研究课题(XKJC2023004)。

摘　　要：水资源效率与韧性是可持续性研究的2个核心问题,分析中国水资源效率与韧性的协同发展关系对促进中国水资源可持续利用具有重要意义。以2000—2022年全国30个省区为研究对象,运用超效率SBM模型和三维矢量模型测度了中国水资源效率和韧性水平,并使用哈肯模型探究了两者的协同演化特征。结果表明:研究期内水资源效率呈波动式上升—缓慢下降趋势,2022年中国区域水资源效率均值为0.47,整体上处于非有效区;研究期内中国水资源韧性水平整体呈平稳波动—快速上升—缓慢上升趋势,区域内水资源韧性水平存在梯度差异,表现为东部地区>东北地区>中部地区>西部地区;研究期内中国水资源韧性与效率协同水平整体上呈波动式上升趋势,水资源效率为协同演化的序参量,对整个系统的演化进程起积极导向作用。Water resource efficiency and resilience are two core issues in sustainability research.Analyzing their synergistic development in China is of great significance for promoting sustainable water resource utilization across the nation.Based on the Super-Efficiency SBM model and three-dimensional vector model,this study measures the water resource efficiency and resilience levels of 30 provinces and regions in China from 2000 to 2022.Furthermore,the Haaken model is employed to explore the coevolution characteristics of these two factors.The results show that during the study period,water resource efficiency exhibited a fluctuating pattern of increase followed by a slow decline.In 2022,the average regional water resource efficiency in China was 0.47,indicating an overall inefficient state.Over the same period,the overall water resource resilience in China demonstrated a stable fluctuation,followed by a rapid increase and then a slow increase trend.There were gradient differences in resilience levels among regions,with the eastern region>northeastern region>central region>western region.Throughout the study period,the overall coevolution trend of water resource resilience and efficiency in China showed a fluctuating increase trend,with water resource efficiency serving as the order parameter in co-evolution,playing a positive guiding role in the evolution process of the entire system.

关 键 词：水资源 韧性 效率 协同度 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]