经济周期波动与菲利普斯曲线形态变异:兼论经济回升的路径选择  

Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Shape Evolution of the Phillips Curve:A Concurrent Discussion on the Selection of Economic Recovery Path

作　　者：刘达禹[1] 徐斌[1] Liu Dayu;Xu Bin

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林省长春市130012

出　　处：《南方经济》2024年第9期75-93,共19页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“跨周期和逆周期结合下的金融安全维护研究”(22JJD790066);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目“央行沟通语境分析、通胀预期形成机制与中央银行信誉优化研究”(2024T170338)的联合资助。

摘　　要：厘清菲利普斯曲线形态变异的本质机理对于准确把握经济运行规律和确保宏观调控精准施策具有重要意义。为此,文章全面识别了中国菲利普斯曲线在经济周期不同阶段下的形态特征,并就如何采取合意的宏观经济政策引导经济回升展开了深入探讨。研究发现:第一,经济增速放缓、通胀单边异动以及全球化向逆全球化转变是导致“产出—通胀”型菲利普斯曲线出现形态变异的核心原因;第二,中国菲利普斯曲线在经济周期不同阶段的表现为:在经济周期上升或是平稳运行阶段,斜率较为陡峭,而在经济周期下行阶段则呈现出扁平化趋向;第三,不同宏观经济政策对经济回升路径的影响存在显著差异,现阶段以价格型货币政策搭配财政政策的渐进调控方式不失为一种引导经济平稳复苏的有益尝试。面对当下产出端与通胀端的双重紧缩压力,适度地矫正“产出—通胀”权衡关系,塑造陡峭的菲利普斯曲线斜率具有重要意义,这不仅有利于引导经济沿着安全的路径回升,同时也能在最大限度上避免古典经济危机重现。During the“Subprime Crisis”in the United States,many countries introduced large-scale fiscal and monetary policies to guide economic recovery.These policies stimulated economic growth to a certain extent,but a new phenomenon was that inflation did not rise,and remained low.The weakening linkage between output and inflation means that the slope of the Phillips curve is no longer steep,which is the most famous hypothesis namely the“flattening Phillips curve”in the past decade.However,after the outbreak of the COVID-19,the global economy fell into recession again.Intermittent interruptions in the supply chains of various countries triggered extremely serious supply shocks.The weakening expectations of residents and enterprises led to a rapid decline in effective demand.These factors led to a significant rise in inflation rates in various countries again.It seems that the current Phillips curve shape can be no longer described as‘flattened’,and it is likely to steepen at an extremely fast pace,making the linkage between output and inflation more complex.Therefore,a restudy of the Phillips curve is of crucial theoretical and practical significance.This paper comprehensively identifies the shape evolution of China’s Phillips curve under different stages of business cycle,and conducts a deep discussion on how to program the path of economic recovery by desirable macroeconomic policies.The conclusions are as follows:First,a slowing down economic growth rate,unilateral changes in inflation,and the shift from globalization to de-globalization are the three core factors that lead to the shape evolution of the Phillips curve.Second,the specific performances of China’s Phillips curve in different stages of business cycle are as follows:the curve slope is steeper in the upwards phase of business cycle,while it shows a flattening trend during the contraction stage of business cycle.Third,there are significant differences between different macroeconomic policies to program economic recovery path,among which a gra

关 键 词：经济周期波动 菲利普斯曲线 宏观调控 经济回升路径 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济]