全面认识产业转移的新特征新模式——基于开放视角下的事实与分析  

A Thorough Grasp of the Emerging Features and Paradigms in Industrial Transfer:Based on the Facts and Analysis from an Open Perspective

作　　者：吕越[1] 王者 于喆宁 Lv Yue;Wang Zhe;Yu Zhening

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国家对外开放研究院,北京市100029 [2]对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院,北京市100029

出　　处：《南方经济》2024年第9期117-134,共18页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下中国产业链供应链安全稳定战略研究”(21&ZD098);国家自然科学基金面上项目“全球疫情大流行下国际国内价值链重构对中国的影响和应对策略”(72073025);国家自然科学基金面上项目“全球价值链、创新驱动与制造业‘低端锁定’破局:成因、机制及应对策略”(71873031);对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(24XZ04)资助。

摘　　要：当前,全球产业链正向本地化、区域化、多元化、绿色化和数字化方向加速重构与调整。在此背景下,美欧等国家和地区陆续推出一系列政策措施,加速产业转移步伐,直接影响到我国的产业链供应链安全稳定。对此,文章利用fDi Markets、UN Comtrade等多个数据库,基于开放视角从来华投资、对外直接投资与中间品贸易三个关键维度对我国产业转移的理论与现状进行深入剖析,并归纳出当前产业转移的四种典型模式,进而在“分类研判”基础上提出“精准施策”的方案。研究发现:第一,在来华投资方面,尚未表现出大规模产业转移,法国等欧洲国家对华投资率先增长,但需警惕美日韩等地区以及电子元件、半导体和汽车设备等产业链较长行业的来华外资下降趋势。第二,在对外投资方面,总体呈现出稳中有进的态势,其中对墨西哥以及共建“一带一路”国家的投资增势最为突出,对电子元件、金属制品、汽车设备等高端制造行业以及矿产资源行业的投资也表现出了持续向好的态势。第三,在中间品贸易方面,近年来我国中间品出口在全球市场中的份额显著提升,其中对越南、印度和泰国等地区的出口比重大幅提高,高技术产品的出口增势也尤为突出。在此基础上,我们进一步归纳提出当前产业转移的四种主要模式:地缘政治驱动型、生产成本驱动型、产业链布局驱动型以及国际合作驱动型。最后,根据不同产业转移模式以及当前的产业转移新特征,提出相应的对策建议,为确保我国产业链供应链韧性与安全提供有益的支撑。Currently,the global industrial chain is undergoing an accelerated restructuring and adjustment towards localization,regionalization,diversification,greening,and digitization.Against this backdrop,countries such as the United States and European countries have introduced a series of policies and measures to expedite the shift of industries,which directly impacts the security and stability of China’s industrial and supply chains.This paper employs multiple databases,including fDi Markets and UN Comtrade,to conduct an in-depth analysis of the current state of industrial transfer in China from the perspectives of FDI,OFDI and intermediate goods trade.We identify four typical patterns of industry relocation and propose targeted strategic measures based on a“categorized assessment”.The study finds that:First,in terms of the FDI,there has not yet been a massive scale of industrial transfer from China.European countries,including France,have taken the lead in increasing investments in China.However,there is a need to be vigilant about the decline in foreign investments from countries like the USA,Japan,and Republic of Korea,especially in industries with longer supply chains such as electronic components,semiconductors,and automotive equipments.Second,in terms of the OFDI,there is a general trend of steady increase,with particularly strong growth in investments in Mexico and countries along the"Belt and Road"initiative.Investments in highend manufacturing industries such as electronic components,metal products,automotive equipments,as well as mineral resources have also shown a consistently positive trend.Third,in the trade of intermediate goods,China’s exports have significantly increased in terms of the global share in recent years,with notably increased export ratios to regions such as Vietnam,India,and Thailand,and a marked rise in the exports of high-tech products.On this basis,the paper further identifies four main patterns of industrial transfer:geopolitical-driven,production cost-driven,supply chain layou

关 键 词：产业转移 外商直接投资 对外直接投资 中间品贸易 产业链安全 

分 类 号：F415[经济管理—产业经济]