耕地轮作休耕政策对粮食绿色生产的促进作用——基于中国耕地轮作休耕制度试点的准自然实验  

The Promoting Effect of Farmland Rotation and Fallow Policy on Green Food Production—A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on the Pilot Program of Crop Rotation and Fallow System of Cultivated Land in China

作　　者：肖青奕 侯娇 柳溪 陆世东 张旭鹏 XIAO Qing-yi;HOU Jiao;LIU Xi(Hubei Provincial Institute of Spatial Planning,Wuhan,Hubei 430064;Wuhan Polytechnic University,Wuhan,Hubei 430048;Central Natural Resources Engineering Technology(Hubei)Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan,Hubei 430064)

机构地区：[1]湖北省空间规划研究院,湖北武汉430064 [2]武汉轻工大学,湖北武汉430048 [3]中部自然资源工程技术(湖北)有限公司,湖北武汉430064 [4]中国地质大学(武汉),湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2024年第18期255-260,共6页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(42101263)。

摘　　要：基于中国耕地轮作休耕制度试点为准自然实验,根据2000—2019年中国省际面板数据,运用双重差分(DID)、非期望的超效率-Malmquist生产指数(SBM-Malmquist)、系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)方法,实证检验耕地轮作休耕对粮食绿色生产的影响效应。结果表明:中国粮食绿色生产以及促进粮食绿色生产的粮食绿色生产技术进步与粮食绿色生产技术效率均具有较大的提升空间;耕地轮作休耕制度试点显著促进了粮食绿色生产,主要表现为粮食生产绿色技术效率的持续改善以推动粮食绿色全要素生产率的增长。从粮食绿色生产视角准确客观评估耕地轮作休耕制度试点的政策绩效,对于当前试点地区调整或完善耕地轮作休耕制度的政策举措,推动耕地轮作休耕制度的常态化、制度化具有重要的政策蕴含,也为当前促进粮食绿色生产提供路径参考。Taking the pilot of crop rotation and fallow system of cultivated land in China as a quasi-natural experiment,the purpose of this paper is to test the effects of crop rotation and fallow on grain green production based on 2000-2019 provincial panel data in China.The undesirable super efficiency SBM model and Malmquist index was used to calculate the green total factor productivity of grain,and then the difference-in-differences model and system GMM estimation were used to test the impact of the pilot of crop rotation and fallow system on grain green production.The results indicated that:The grain green production in China has great potential for improvement,as well as the technical progress and technical efficiency of the green production of grain.The pilot of crop rotation and fallow system has significantly promoted the green production of grain,mainly in the form of the continuous improvement of the green technical efficiency of grain production to promote the growth of the total factor productivity.To accurately and objectively evaluate the policy performance of crop rotation fallow system pilot from the perspective of grain green production,has important policy implications for adjusting or improving the policy measures of the rotation fallow system in the current pilot areas,and promoting the normalization and institutionalization of the rotation fallow system,and it also provides the path reference for the transition of grain production to green development under the new situation of sufficient grain supply at home and abroad.

关 键 词：耕地轮作休耕 粮食绿色生产 粮食绿色全要素生产率 双重差分法 

分 类 号：S344[农业科学—作物栽培与耕作技术]