强降雨情景下附着式升降脚手架事故致因IFRAM-BN模型  

IFRAM-BN model for causes of accidents in attached lifting scaffolding under heavy rainfall scenarios

作　　者：陈伟[1] 赵卓雅 牛力 温道云 罗浩 CHEN Wei;ZHAO Zhuoya;NIU Li;WEN Daoyun;LUO Hao(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;Wuhan Municipal Engineering Quality and Safety Center,Wuhan Hubei 430021,China;Wuhan Housing Expropriation and Famous City Protection Center,Wuhan Hubei 430021,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学土木工与建筑学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉市市政工程质量安全中心,湖北武汉430021 [3]武汉市房屋征收和名城保护中心,湖北武汉430021

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第7期44-52,共9页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：武汉市城建局科技计划项目(202319)。

摘　　要：强降雨事件频发造成附着式升降脚手架事故剧增,为提高强降雨情景下施工安全性,降低事故发生率,提出一种基于改进的功能共振分析模型(IFRAM)和贝叶斯网络(BN)相结合的事故致因分析模型。首先,从定性角度,利用IFRAM识别事故机制并深度挖掘系统功能共振情况;其次,将IFRAM映射至BN定量分析模型,并引入联系云优化计算各根节点的先验概率;最后,以西安“9·10”事故为例,进行实证研究并提出相应预防措施。结果表明:事故在安全状态为Ⅳ级时,发生的可能性最大。工人违规操作、未进行旁站等强制性监督、强降雨等是导致爬架事故的核心致因;强降雨环境→雨后架体载荷超载等致因组合是诱发爬架事故的关键。Frequent heavy rainfall events cause a dramatic increase in attached elevator scaffolding accidents.In order to improve construction safety and reduce the accident rate under heavy rainfall scenarios,an accident causation analysis model based on combination of IFRAM and BN was proposed.The model first qualitatively identified accident mechanisms and explored system functional resonance using IFRAM.Next,IFRAM was mapped to a BN quantitative analysis model,and the prior probabilities of each root node were computed using cloud optimization.Finally,taking the Xi'an"9.10"accident as an example,empirical research was conducted,and corresponding preventive measures were proposed.The results indicate that accidents are most likely to occur when the safety status is IV.The core causes of climbing accidents include workers violating regulations,failure to conduct mandatory supervision such as standing by and heavy rainfall.The combination of factors such as heavy rainfall environment and overloading of the frame after rain is the key to inducing frame climbing accidents.

关 键 词：强降雨 附着式升降脚手架 事故致因 改进的功能共振分析模型(IFRAM) 贝叶斯网络(BN) 联系云 

分 类 号：X952[环境科学与工程—安全科学]