碳排放“回弹效应”是否存在?——基于数字金融发展视角的机制研究  

Is There a“Rebound Effect”of Carbon Emissions?-A Mechanism Research from the Development Perspective of Digital Finance

作　　者：张恩典 李湛[1] 薛安伟 Zhang Endian;Li Zhan;Xue Anwei(Institute of Applied Economics;Institute of World Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200020,China)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院应用经济研究所 [2]不详

出　　处：《江苏大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第5期72-90,共19页Journal of Jiangsu University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21FJLB014);上海市软科学重点项目(24692100800)。

摘　　要：数字金融是近年来的金融新业态,其发展对实现碳中和、碳达峰具有重要意义。研究发现,数字金融的规模效应、结构效应、技术效应和政策效应均会对碳排放产生不同影响;数字金融发展显著降低碳排放,同时会引发碳排放回弹效应,而异质性分析表明,第三产业的碳排放回弹效应并不明显。进一步使用调节效应模型探究回弹效应的影响机制,发现经济规模的增长会部分抵消数字金融的减碳效果,而绿色技术进步和环保政策实施会加强数字金融的减碳效果,产业结构的变化对碳排放的影响则存在异质性。因此,为实现碳达峰、碳中和目标,需要协调经济增长和产业结构之间的关系,加强绿色技术研发投入,统筹制订科学合理的环境政策。Digital finance is a new form of finance in recent years,and its development is of great significance to achieve carbon neutrality and carbon peak.It was found that digital finance will have different impacts on carbon emissions in line with its scale,structure,technology and policy.The development of digital finance significantly reduces carbon emissions,and at the same time has the“rebound effect”of carbon emissions,which,however,is insignificant in the tertiary industry as the heterogeneity analysis shows.A further study of the impact mechanism of“rebound effect”using the regulatory effect mode found that the growth of economic scale will partially offset the carbon reduction effect of digital finance,while the progress of green technology and the implementation of environmental protection policies will strengthen the carbon reduction effect of digital finance,and the impact of digital finance on carbon emissions varies with the changes in industrial structure.Therefore,in order to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,it is necessary to coordinate the relationship between economic growth and industrial structure,increase investment in the research and development of green technology,and formulate scientific and reasonable environmental policies.

关 键 词：数字金融 碳排放 回弹效应 规模效应 政策效应 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F8832.4