耦合NSGA-Ⅲ和FLUS模型的生态脆弱农区土地利用多目标协同优化配置  

Multi-objective collaborative optimization allocation of land use in ecologically fragile agricultural areas by coupling NSGA-Ⅲand FLUS models

作　　者：李少帅 刘晓煌 张超 靳京[4] 曹文静 禄竸 张琰 LI Shaoshuai;LIU Xiaohuang;ZHANG Chao;JIN Jing;CAO Wenjing;LU Jing;ZHANG Yan(Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100035,China;Command Center of Natural Resource Comprehensive Survey,Beijing 100055,China;College of Land Science and Technology,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100094,China;China Center for Modernization Research,CAS,Beijing 100190,China;Shenzhen Real Estate and Urban Construction Development Research Center,Shenzhen 518028,Guangdong,China;Land Satellite Remote Sensing Application Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]自然资源部国土整治中心,北京100035 [2]自然资源综合调查指挥中心,北京100055 [3]中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院,北京100094 [4]中国科学院中国现代化研究中心,北京100190 [5]深圳市房地产和城市建设发展研究中心,广东深圳518028 [6]自然资源部国土卫星遥感应用中心,北京100190

出　　处：《陕西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第4期109-119,共11页Journal of Shaanxi Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFD1500203);自然资源部高层次创新科技人才工程(121106000000180039-2206);自然资源部国土卫星遥感应用重点实验室开放基金(KLSMNR-202205);国土空间生态修复模式研究(GDTDZZ-2023027-010206)。

摘　　要：依托数学模型和情景模拟,形成弹性的土地利用优化配置方案,对促进生态脆弱农区生态、农业和经济用地协调发展具有重要意义。以河套灌区乌兰布和灌域为例,采用MSPA(morphological spatial pattern analysis)和斑块重要性指数识别和提取生态源地,耦合NSGA-Ⅲ(non-dominated sorting genetic algorithmⅢ)和FLUS(future land use simulation)模型,基于4种情景模拟形成具有弹性的生态脆弱农区土地利用优化配置方案。结果表明:基于NSGA-Ⅲ可以快速形成研究区多目标下的Pareto解集,且解集内的各目标效益均优于2020年土地利用效益值。生态安全优先发展、粮食生产优先发展和经济优先发展情景存在其他两项目标效益提升不明显的情况。相对来说,最小土地利用变化条件下的均衡效益发展情景可在土地利用变化幅度最小的情况下,达到更高、更均衡的综合效益。制订土地利用优化配置方案时,在参考各情景土地利用优化配置布局的基础上识别土地利用协调冲突区,有助于形成弹性的土地利用优化配置方案,以适应区域可能发生的内外部经济政策环境变化。Developing flexible land use optimization allocation plans based on mathematical models and scenario simulations is crucial for promoting the coordinated development of ecological,agricultural,and economic lands in ecologically fragile agricultural areas.Taking the Ulan Buh irrigation district in the Hetao irrigation area as an example,this study utilizes morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)and patch importance index to identify and extract ecological source areas.Subsequently,the NSGA-Ⅲ(non-dominated sorting genetic algorithmⅢ)and FLUS model are coupled to formulate elastic land use optimization allocation plans for ecologically fragile agricultural areas based on four scenario simulations.Results indicate that NSGA-Ⅲcan efficiently generate a Pareto solution set with multiple objectives,outperforming the 2020 land use benefits.However,scenarios prioritizing ecological security,food production,and economic development show marginal improvements in other objective benefits.Conversely,scenarios emphasizing balanced benefits development under minimal land use change conditions exhibit higher and more balanced comprehensive benefits.When devising land use optimization allocation plans,identifying land use coordination and conflict zones based on scenario-specific optimal allocations aids in formulating flexible plans to accommodate potential changes in economic policies and environments.Overall,this study provides insights for optimizing land use plans in ecologically sensitive and fragile agricultural areas.

关 键 词：土地利用 NSGA-Ⅲ FLUS模型 多目标协同 生态脆弱农区 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] TU98[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]