可拓理论在技术演化与预测中的应用潜力  

Potential Application of Extenics in Technology Evolution and Forecasting

作　　者：李宜展 孔晔晗[3] 李泽霞[1,2] Li Yizhan;Kong Yehan;Li Zexia(National Science Library,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Department of Information Resources Management,School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Agricultural Information Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院文献情报中心,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院信息资源管理系,北京100190 [3]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《现代情报》2024年第10期86-102,共17页Journal of Modern Information

基　　金：中国科学院青年人才项目“基于层次基元和可拓创新的技术预测研究”(项目编号:552020000257);中国科学院文献情报能力建设专项“支撑院科技规划与布局的全球科技态势战略研判”(项目编号:2021000424)。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]可拓理论是一种围绕矛盾问题本质和转化变换机理寻求解决问题途径的方法论,将其引入技术演化与预测分析,是应对当下国际科技竞合环境、面向国家科技自立自强需求的创新融合举措。在揭示复杂技术创新过程中,不仅可以强化分析方法科学性,提高信度和效度,也为更深入地理解技术演化机制,寻找潜在发展机会提供可能。[方法/过程]本文在系统梳理技术演化与预测主流方法、可拓理论在知识管理与技术创新典型应用的基础上,总结当前方法存在的不足。以面向农业遥感领域作物估产问题为例,进行可拓分析和定性验证。[结果/结论]从理论基础、表达方式和分析过程3个角度,探讨可拓理论用于挖掘领域技术发展前沿方向的意义与潜力,指出利用可拓理论分析领域技术演化过程需要注意的问题,并通过案例分析证明理论思想的适用性。[Purpose/Significance]Technology evolution and forecasting is an important tool for science and technology management departments and researchers to reveal complex technological innovation processes and identify potential development opportunities,in the context of profound changes in the international science and technology competition environment and the increasingly urgent need for self-sustainable development of science and technology.By introducing Extenics Theory,a methodology that seeking to solve problems by focusing on the nature of contradictory issues and transformation mechanisms,into technology evolution and prediction analysis,it could strengthen the scientific of technology evolution and forecasting analysis,improve the reliability and validity,and also provide the better insight of technology evolution mechanisms.[Method/Process]In this paper,the study reviewed main methods of technology evolution and forecasting of subject field,typical application of Extenics in knowledge management and innovation.It was qualitatively verified by taking the extension analysis of crop yield estimation in agricultural remote sensing as an example.[Result/Conclusion]The study discusses the significance and potential of Extenics theory for mining the frontier of technology,from theoretical foundation,expression and analysis perspectives,then points out the issues that should be attention in process.And the case study shows the applicability of extension theory in technology evolution analysis and forecasting.

关 键 词：可拓理论 技术演化 技术预测 知识表达 可拓集 

分 类 号：G301[文化科学]