中国劳动收入份额的周期波动  

The Cyclical Fluctuations of Labor Share in China

作　　者：侯成琪 岳树华 师恩泽 王桂军 HoU Chengqi;YUE Shuhua;SHI Enze;WANG Guijun(School of Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《金融研究》2024年第5期58-76,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD105)的资助。

摘　　要：中国劳动收入份额的周期波动比较剧烈,是决定劳动收入份额走势的重要因素。本文改进了在完全竞争(经济利润为零)条件下将总收入分为劳动收入和资本收入的处理方法,在垄断竞争条件下将总收入分为劳动收入、资本收入和利润,通过分析各类因素对利润份额的影响,以及剩余份额在劳动收入和资本收入之间的分配,研究中国劳动收入份额周期波动的决定因素及其作用机制。本文发现:价格加成冲击、资本偏向型技术进步冲击和货币政策冲击分别可解释劳动收入份额52.84%、18.29%和15.87%的周期波动;价格加成冲击和货币政策冲击导致劳动收入份额与产出缺口同向波动,资本偏向型技术进步冲击导致劳动收入份额与产出缺口反向波动;这三个外生冲击的影响,首先取决于其对利润份额的影响,其次才是剩余份额在劳动收入和资本收入之间的分配。本文的研究表明,应高度重视劳动收入份额的周期波动,充分发挥货币政策的作用,持续优化公平竞争的市场环境,采取有效措施应对新一代技术革命对劳动收入份额的不利影响,将劳动收入份额稳定在合理水平。The cyclical fluctuations of labor income share in China are more pronounced compared to those of output cycles in China or labor income share cycles in the United States.These fluctuations play a crucial role in determining China's labor income share and have significant implications for economic cycle fluctuations.However,current research predominantly focuses on the long-term trends of labor income share,particularly on its U-shaped characteristics,paying less attention to its cyclical fluctuations.This paper distinguishes between the long-term trends and cyclical fluctuations of labor income share and focuses on studying the cyclical fluctuations of labor income share in China.It improves the analytical framework for studying labor income share by considering the characteristics of economic cycles,dividing total income into labor income,capital income,and monopoly profits,and establishing a theoretical model capable of characterizing the cyclical fluctuations of China's labor income share.This paper firstly utilizes the theoretical model to analyze the impact of various factors on profit share and the distribution of residual share between labor income and capital income,thereby proposing the core theoretical mechanism of exogenous shocks affecting the cyclical fluctuations of labor income share.Then,it calibrates and estimates the parameters using macroeconomic data from China.Employing methods such as variance decomposition,impulse response analysis,and historical decomposition,the paper identifies the main driving factors of cyclical fluctuations in China's labor income share.The research findings are as follows:Firstly,price markup shocks,capital-biased technological progress shocks,and monetary policy shocks are the main factors determining the cyclical fluctuations of China's labor income share,explaining 52.84%,18.29%,and 15.87%of the cyclical fluctuations,respectively.Furthermore,the impacts of these three shocks on the cyclical fluctuations of labor income share differ significantly from their impact

关 键 词：劳动收入份额 周期波动 经济周期 动态随机一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]