“双循环”推动中国高质量充分就业的效应及影响因素:基于不同贸易方式的世界投入占用产出模型分析  

The Effect and Influencing Factors of Dual Circulation to Promote High-Quality Full Employment in China:Analysis of World Input-Occupancy-Output Model Based on Different Modes of Trade

作　　者：朱金生[1] 王炳轩 屈豆豆 ZHU Jinsheng;WANG Bingxuan;QU Doudou

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2024年第8期3-15,M0002,共14页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“双循环推动更加充分更高质量就业的实现机制及政策路径研究”(项目编号:22BJY048)。

摘　　要：如何利用国内国际双循环实现中国高质量充分就业是关系国计民生的重要理论和现实问题。文章利用OECD提供的2003~2018年世界投入产出数据库和就业数据库,采用世界投入占用产出模型和结构分解方法,基于不同贸易方式分析了“双循环”对中国高质量充分就业的效应及影响因素。研究发现:总体上,2003~2018年中国就业数量和就业质量均得到提升,一般贸易在其中的作用大于加工贸易;内循环和双循环联动分别是拉动一般贸易方式和加工贸易方式就业数量和就业质量提升的主动力,纯外循环在其中作用均较小;中国初步形成“内循环为主、外循环为辅、双循环赋能”的高质量充分就业发展模式。背后的原因在于,中间品投入和最终需求的正面效应大于劳动生产率(劳动报酬份额)的负面效应,从而使得总效应为正。从动态来看,中国不同贸易方式推动就业质量不断提升,但就业数量呈现先增加后减少的情况。分三次产业来看,中国就业数量呈现由第一产业向第二产业和第三产业转移的趋势,符合配第—克拉克定理,就业质量稳步提高。进一步实证检验表明,“双循环联动”对中国就业数量和质量均存在显著的促进作用。文章的研究结果有助于为中国如何通过贸易转型升级推动“双循环”新发展格局和高质量充分就业协同发展提供理论支持、经验证据和决策参考。How to utilize the domestic and international circulation to realize high-quality full employment in China is an important theoretical and practical issue related to national economy and people′s livelihood. This paper utilizes the 2003-2018 world input-output database and employment database provided by OECD, and adopts the world input-occupancy-output model and structural decomposition method to analyze the effect of the dual circulation on China′s high-quality full employment and the factors affecting it based on different modes of trade. The study finds that, overall, the quantity and quality of employment in China have been improved from 2003 to 2018, and the role of general trade is greater than that of processing trade. The domestic circulation and dual circulation linkage are the main driving force for the improvement of the quantity and quality of employment in the general trade mode and the processing trade mode, respectively, and the role of the pure international circulation is smaller. China has initially formed a high-quality full employment development model in the sense of which the domestic circulation is the mainstay, the international circulation is the supplement, and the dual circulation is the enabling force. The reason behind is that the positive effect of intermediate inputs and final demand is greater than the negative effect of labor productivity(labor compensation share), making the total effect positive. From a dynamic point of view, China′s different modes of trade have contributed to the continuous improvement of the quality of employment, but the quantity of employment has shown an increase and then a decrease. In terms of the three industries, the employment quantity in China shows the trend of transferring from the primary industry to the secondary industry and the tertiary industry, which is in line with the Petty-Clark′s Law, the employment quality is steadily improving. Further empirical tests show that there is a significant promotion effect of dual circulation linkage

关 键 词：“双循环” 贸易方式 高质量充分就业 投入占用产出模型 结构分解方法 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]