媒体关注度、美誉度对外商直接投资的影响——基于非洲国家的大数据研究  

The impact of global attention,reputation on foreign direct investment:Based on big data research in African countries

作　　者：张柏杨 付志惠 陈云松[2] 李颖[2] ZHANG Boyang;FU Zhihui;CHEN Yunsong;LI Ying(School of Ethnology and Sociology,Inner Mogolia University,Hohhot 010021,China;School of Social and Behavioral Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古大学民族学与社会学学院,呼和浩特010021 [2]南京大学社会学院,南京210023

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2024年第8期27-39,共13页World Regional Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(21ASH004)。

摘　　要：以非洲35个国家为例,基于GDELT新闻媒体数据库,构建非洲国家的全球关注度和美誉度指标,使用情感分析、空间分析、可视化和动态面板计量模型对外商直接投资(FDI)区位选择的影响因素进行研究。研究发现:从时间趋势上看,非洲的外商直接投资趋势曲线共有4种变动模式——高投资型、投资上升型、投资下降型和低投资型。从空间维度上看,非洲的外商直接投资和全球传播指标的地区差异明显,并形成以非洲南部、几内亚湾和部分北非地区为主的外商直接投资和全球传播高地。基准模型表明,非洲国家的外商直接投资除了取决于经济和制度等传统因素外,也受到其在全球传播中的关注度和美誉度的影响。其中,全球媒体关注度影响效应的大小约为投资国经济发展水平影响效应的11.6%,与投资国制度政策优越度影响效应相当。而媒体美誉度指数对外商直接投资的影响效应大小约为经济因素的7.54%,约为制度政策因素的二分之一。基于大数据的宏观定量分析,从社会文化传播角度对外商直接投资理论进行拓展延伸,是大数据和计算社会科学方法与传统定量研究方法的有益结合,也为提升国家形象发展战略提供了数据和理论支持。Taking 35 African countries as examples,based on GDELT and using sentiment analysis,spatial analysis,visualization and dynamic panel econometric model,this paper constructs global attention and reputation indicators in African countries and explain foreign direct investment behavior(FDI).It is found that,in terms of time trends,there are four types of FDI curves in African countries,including high investment,rising investment,falling investment and low investment.Spatially,there are marked regional differences of FDI in Africa.The econometric model shows that FDI in African regions is influenced by global attention and reputation.Besides,the size of the influence effect of global attention is about 11.6% of the economic development level and equivalent to the influence effect of the policy superiority.The effect size of global reputation on FDI is about 7.54% of economic factors and about half of that of policy factors.This paper is a macro-quantitative analysis based on big data to expand and extend the theory of FDI from the perspective of socio-cultural communication,which is a useful combination of big data and computational social science methods with traditional quantitative research methods.This paper also provides data and theoretical support for enhancing national image development strategies.

关 键 词：非洲国家 外商直接投资 全球传播 GDELT数据库 动态面板模型 

分 类 号：F14[经济管理—世界经济] F831.6[文化科学—传播学] G206