2018—2022年蚌埠市HIV异性性传播感染人群时空分析  

Spatio-temporal analysis of HIV infected population for heterosexual transmission in Bengbu from 2018 to 2022

作　　者：韩解 潘阳 陈敏[1] 马凤昌[1] 王祥[1] HAN Xie;PAN Yang;CHEN Min;MA Fengchang;WANG Xiang(Bengbu Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Bengbu 233000,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]蚌埠市疾病预防控制中心,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2024年第9期1074-1079,共6页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

基　　金：2023年中央补助重大传染病防控资金(项目编号:皖卫函[2023]259号);2023年蚌埠市卫健委科研项目(项目编号:BBWK2023A211)。

摘　　要：目的分析2018—2022年蚌埠市人类免疫缺陷病毒(human immunodeficiency virus,HIV)异性性传播感染者的时空特征,为艾滋病针对性防控以及医疗资源合理利用提供依据。方法采用描述性流行病学方法对2018—2022年蚌埠市HIV异性性传播感染者基本特征进行分析,利用ArcGIS 10.8软件构建病例的地理数据库,进行空间描述,利用全局莫兰指数(Global Moran's I)与局部莫兰指数(AnselinLocal Moran's I)进行空间自相关分析,利用SaTScan 10.1进行空间扫描分析,并用ArcGIS 10.8可视化展示空间聚集性。以P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。结果2018—2022年蚌埠市共发现438例HIV异性性传播感染者,男性,大于60岁,文化程度小学及以下,农民,离异或丧偶,性伴侣≥2人分别占78.31%、50.68%、56.39%、73.06%、45.66%和84.47%。HIV异性性传播感染者在蚌埠市的分布历年呈现全局空间自相关(Z=2.086,P=0.037;Z=2.111,P=0.035;Z=2.559,P=0.011;Z=2.573,P=0.010;Z=2.113,P=0.033),局部自相关表明应重点关注双忠庙镇、申集镇、小圩镇和城关镇等地区。空间扫描表明2019—2021小圩镇、申集镇等地区出现空间聚集性(RR=13.99,LLR=78.12,P<0.001)。结论2018—2022年蚌埠市病例呈现先升高后下降的趋势,出现明显的空间自相关,应重点关注蚌埠市东部小圩镇、申集镇以及中部治淮街道、东升街道等聚集地区。Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)heterosexually transmitted infections in Bengbu City from 2018 to 2022,to provide a basis for the targeted prevention and control of AIDS and the rational use of medical resources.Methods Descriptive statistics were performed to understand the basic characteristics of Bengbu HIV heterosexually transmitted infections 2018 to 2022.The geographic database of cases was established by using ArcGIS 10.8 software,spatial description was performed.Spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed by using Global Moran's I and Anselin Local Moran's I,and spatial scanning analysis was conducted by using SaTScan 10.1.Spatial scanning analysis and spatial aggregation visualization were performed using ArcGIS 10.8.P<0.05 was considered as statistically significant.Results A total of 438 cases of HIV heterosexual transmitted infections were identified in Bengbu City from 2018 to 2022.Individuals of males,aged>60 years old,elementary school or below,farmers,divorced or widowed,and having≥2 sexual partners accounted for 78.31%,50.68%,56.39%,73.06%,45.66%,and 84.47%of total cases,respectively.The HIV heterosexual STIs in Bengbu City distribution over the years showed global spatial autocorrelation(Z=2.086,P=0.037;Z=2.111,P=0.035;Z=2.559,P=0.011;Z=2.573,P=0.010;Z=2.113,P=0.033),and local autocorrelation indicated that the focus should be on areas such as Shuangzhongmiao Town,Shenji Town,Xiaowei Town,Chengguan Town.Spatial scanning indicates that spatial aggregation occured in areas such as Xiaoxu Town,and Shenji Town(RR=13.99,LLR=78.12,P<0.001)in 2019 to 2021.Conclusions The HIV heterosexual STIs cases showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing s in Bengbu City in 2018 to 2022,with obvious spatial autocorrelation,which should focus on the aggregated areas such as Xiaowu Town,Shenji Town in the eastern part of Bengbu City,and Zhihuai Street and Dongsheng Street in the central part of Bengbu City.

关 键 词：艾滋病病毒 异性性传播 空间相关 时空聚集 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]