阵风系数模型的研究与应用综述  

Review of Research and Application of Gust Factor Model

作　　者：景盼盼 岳彩军 沈其艳 季晓东 Jing Panpan;Yue Caijun;Shen Qiyan;Ji Xiaodong(Shanghai Marine Meteorological Centre,Shanghai 200030)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋中心气象台,上海200030

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2024年第4期21-28,52,共9页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：上海市气象局科技研发项目(QM202315);国家自然科学基金(41875059)。

摘　　要：阵风与日常生活和行业运作息息相关。阵风过强会带来严重危害,但目前依然缺乏精准的阵风预报方法。阵风系数模型是一种具有较高技巧、适用于特定地点最大阵风预报的统计学方法。全面系统回顾阵风系数模型的定义、建立以及国内外研究和应用进展发现,现有研究着重分析了阵风系数对气象和环境因素的敏感性以及模型性能评估,但模型与物理学方法或阵风客观预报产品的比较研究相对不足,并且用于建立阵风系数的观测资料分辨率较低;已有研究尝试利用阵风系数的敏感性改进阵风系数模型并取得了一些进展,但改进后的模型尚未在其他具有相似地形的地区得到检验和拓展。最后给出了未来有关阵风系数模型的研究重点和改进方向。Gusts,closely related to daily life and industry operations,can pose severe dangers if excessive.However,there is still a lack of accurate gust forecasting methods at present.The gust factor model is a highly skilled statistical method suitable for predicting peak gusts at a specific location.Based on a comprehensive and systematic review of the definition,establishment,as well as the research and application progress of the gust factor model at home and abroad,it is found that the existing researches have focused on analyzing the sensitivity of gust factors to meteorological and environmental elements,as well as on evaluating the model performance.However,there are relatively insufficient comparative researches between the model and physical methods or objective gust prediction products,and the resolution of observations used to establish gust factors is relatively low.Previous studies have attempted to improve the gust factor model based on the sensitivity of gust factors and have made some progress,but the improved model has not yet been tested and expanded in other areas with similar terrains.Finally,future specific research priorities and improvement directions for the gust factor model are proposed.

关 键 词：阵风系数 平均风预报 最大阵风预报 阵风系数模型 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]